USD\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 160,15 civar\u0131nda seyrederek b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi; yen, piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeniden m\u00fcdahale rismini izlemesiyle 160,00 seviyesini bir kez daha test etti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars Haber Ajans\u0131, hafta sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ve nisan ay\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesten bu yana ilk sald\u0131r\u0131lar olan operasyonlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik askeri faaliyetlerini sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Donald Trump, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylerken, nihai anla\u015fmaya kadar \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini belirtti; bu de\u011fi\u015fim dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken yeni destekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), daha \u00f6nce erken nisandan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 100,21\u2019i g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 99,96 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak USD\/JPY\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilme, yenin temel dinamiklerindeki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019nun nisan sonundaki m\u00fcdahalesiyle elde edilen kazan\u0131mlar, paritenin 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine sarkmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde eridi. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 28 Nisan-27 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde rekor d\u00fczeyde 11,735 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji \u015foklar\u0131na duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; zira ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan geliyor. Dikkatler \u015fimdi bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verilerine, ard\u0131ndan gelecek hafta yap\u0131lacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Piyasalar BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlarken, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor. G\u00fcn\u00fcn performans tablosunda yen, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi oldu.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY kritik 160,00 seviyesinin etraf\u0131nda gezinirken volatilitede sert bir art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Bu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomik temelleri ile Japon otoritelerin \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek m\u00fcdahale tehdidi aras\u0131ndaki bir m\u00fccadele. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7mekten ziyade, hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015flemeye odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, her iki y\u00f6ne de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan k\u00e2r sa\u011flayabilecek stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k straddle gibi opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131, 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan ya da m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Bu, jeopolitik ve merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksekli\u011fini yans\u0131tan saf bir volatilite oyunudur.<\/p>\n
Tarih, Japon yetkililer devreye girdi\u011finde hareketlerin 2022 m\u00fcdahalelerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %3-4\u2019l\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere benzer \u015fekilde sert ve ani oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda mevcut bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131ndaki %8 ortalamas\u0131ndan y\u00fckselerek %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n bu riski fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, koruma ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel i\u00e7in \u00f6denebilir makul bir bedel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek dolar lehine temel senaryo, ABD faizlerinin %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde, Japonya faizlerinin ise s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n olmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bunu temkinli \u015fekilde oynamak i\u00e7in, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken parite 162\u2019ye do\u011fru itilirse kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamaya olanak tan\u0131yan bull call spread\u2019leri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 kabul ederken 160 seviyesini ciddi bir bariyer olarak dikkate al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeni savunmak i\u00e7in h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 11 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ani bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 da korunmam\u0131z gerekiyor. Savunma amac\u0131yla, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Bu, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin daha da azalmas\u0131 ya da BoJ\u2019un daha \u015fahin bir tonda s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde yeni h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc 160\u2019ta: USD\/JPY 160,15\u2019te yatay, yen m\u00fcdahale riski ve Orta Do\u011fu haberleriyle testte. DXY gerilerken odak ABD enflasyonu, BoJ-Fed; volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49510","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49510\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}