Ortado\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilim ve y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekleyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 iki ay\u0131n zirvelerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. Brent petrol k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 97 dolar\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu durum enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti endi\u015felerini ve k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na yeni bir ivme riskini k\u00f6r\u00fckledi. Piyasalar likidite ve g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelirken, ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen piyasalarda G\u00fcney Kore wonu (KRW) resmi destekle de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, MYR, IDR, HUF ve INR zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu tablo, mevcut getirilerin y\u00fckselen jeopolitik riski telafi etmekte yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu. Dikkat ayr\u0131ca JPY\u2019de ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. USD\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n seyri, petrol fiyat hareketleri ve genel k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD\u2019li t\u00fcketicinin yaz d\u00f6nemi talebine ili\u015fkin beklentiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve bunun enerji fiyatlar\u0131na etkisiyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f modunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 107 civar\u0131nda, son aylar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, sermaye g\u00fcvenli liman ar\u0131yor. Bu s\u0131rada 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 seviyesinde; bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 petroldeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f; Brent vadeli kontratlar \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, \u00f6zellikle son T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,6\u2019da g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, enflasyon beklentilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor. Piyasa art\u0131k bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, ABD dolar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmay\u0131 ve piyasa volatilitesine maruz kalmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. UUP gibi dolara endeksli ETF\u2019lerde ya da son d\u00f6nemde 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) alman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in temkinli ve rasyonel stratejiler oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Belirsizlik t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse bu pozisyonlar avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Macar forintinden Hint rupisine uzanan geli\u015fen piyasa para birimlerinde belirgin zay\u0131flama da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu b\u00f6lgelerdeki daha y\u00fcksek getiriler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve k\u00fcresel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k alg\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynaklanan riski telafi etmekte yetersiz kal\u0131yor. Dolara kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015fen piyasa para birimi vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak, elveri\u015fli bir i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022\u2019de enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokuna benziyor; o d\u00f6nemde dolar ana kazanan olmu\u015ftu. Odak USD\/JPY gibi kritik paritelerde kalmaya devam ediyor; zira s\u00fcregelen dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 resmi uyar\u0131lar\u0131 izlemesi gerekiyor; bu t\u00fcr mesajlar k\u0131sa vadede sert ters hareketler yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ana risk, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaz d\u00f6nemine girilirken t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fi. XLE gibi enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131; y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n deste\u011fiyle s\u00fcrebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ya da talep tahribat\u0131 ciddi bir endi\u015feye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme sinyalleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verileri kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu gerilimi ve %4,5\u2019e dayanan ABD getirileri dolar\u0131 iki ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Brent 105 dolar\u0131 a\u015farak enflasyon endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc; geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler bask\u0131da, g\u00f6zler USD\/JPY m\u00fcdahalesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49509\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}