{"id":49506,"date":"2026-06-08T20:14:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T20:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ing-forint-rallisinin-asiriya-kactigini-dusunuyor-macar-politika-yapicilarin-eur-hufyi-360-370-bandinda-istikrara-kavusturmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T20:14:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T20:14:00","slug":"ing-forint-rallisinin-asiriya-kactigini-dusunuyor-macar-politika-yapicilarin-eur-hufyi-360-370-bandinda-istikrara-kavusturmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ing-forint-rallisinin-asiriya-kactigini-dusunuyor-macar-politika-yapicilarin-eur-hufyi-360-370-bandinda-istikrara-kavusturmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ING, forint rallisinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor; Macar politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/HUF\u2019yi 360-370 band\u0131nda istikrara kavu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ING ekonomistleri Peter Virovacz ve Zolt\u00e1n Homolya, Macar forintinin (HUF) keskin \u015fekilde de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n art\u0131k Macaristan\u2019\u0131 yar\u0131 euro-b\u00f6lgesi benzeri bir ekonomi gibi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ekonomistler, karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ilave HUF kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmektense d\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyor; EUR\/HUF\u2019nin de tahmini adil de\u011fer band\u0131 olan 360\u2013370 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00f6nlendirilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ekonomistler, ihracat odakl\u0131 bir ekonomi i\u00e7in hareketin h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek HUF\u2019nin mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana %11\u201312 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini belirtti. Son iki y\u0131lda ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ifade eden ekonomistler, bu h\u0131z\u0131n ERM II oynakl\u0131k kriterlerini ihlal edecek nitelikte olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Y\u0131llar s\u00fcren de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yurti\u00e7i ekonomik akt\u00f6rlerin b\u00f6ylesi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da eklediler. Ayr\u0131ca, devam eden reel de\u011ferlenmenin olas\u0131 olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na i\u015faret ederek bunun, merkez bankas\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin daha istikrarl\u0131 bir kur patikas\u0131yla ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlama aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundular.<\/p>\n

Forint G\u00fcc\u00fc A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Karar Al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u0130stikrar Aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kabilir<\/h3>\n

Forintin son iki y\u0131ldaki \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 %15\u2019lik de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fcn art\u0131k abart\u0131l\u0131 seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirerek Macaristan\u2019\u0131 neredeyse bir euro-b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi gibi de\u011ferlendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve bu durum EUR\/HUF paritesini 360\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na itti. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket, b\u00f6yle bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z olan ihracat odakl\u0131 ekonomik yap\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u015fok niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n

Karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n forintte ilave kazan\u0131mlara izin vermek yerine istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131n\u0131 ve kuru 360-370 adil de\u011fer band\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirmesini bekliyoruz. Nitekim son veriler de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: Nisan ay\u0131 ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015flama sinyali verdi; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc paran\u0131n olumsuz etkilerine y\u00f6nelik erken bir g\u00f6sterge olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, may\u0131s sonundaki merkez bankas\u0131 yetkilisi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, de\u011ferlenme h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirli bir rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiden ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

Kur Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda Yat\u0131r\u0131m Stratejileri ve Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Y\u00f6netilen istikrara d\u00f6n\u00fck bu beklenti, EUR\/HUF opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin mevcut seviyelerinden gerilemesine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa strangle gibi stratejilerle volatilite satman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tercihine dair ince sinyaller verdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde, keskin hareketlerin daha seyrekle\u015fece\u011fi bir pozisyonlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

360-370 band\u0131n\u0131 hedef olarak ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, EUR\/HUF\u2019nin 360\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131 uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. EUR\/HUF call spread al\u0131m\u0131, paritenin bu alg\u0131lanan adil de\u011fer b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak merkez bankas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme d\u00f6nemlerinin ard\u0131ndan s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmelerle parite alt\u0131nda taban olu\u015fturmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Politika ad\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali, enflasyondaki so\u011fumayla da destekleniyor; may\u0131s verisinde enflasyon iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan %3,4\u2019e geriledi. Bu durum, forintteki g\u00fcc\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla gerekmesi halinde ileride faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilmesi i\u00e7in merkez bankas\u0131na daha fazla esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, EUR\/HUF kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forintte sert ralli alarm veriyor: ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Macaristan\u2019\u0131 \u201cyar\u0131 euro b\u00f6lgesi\u201d gibi fiyatl\u0131yor. HUF a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; karar al\u0131c\u0131lar istikrar\u0131 se\u00e7ip EUR\/HUF\u2019yi 360\u2013370 band\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49808,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}