Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki ABD istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6nceki aylara y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in gev\u015femeye gidece\u011fi beklentisinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bloomberg WIRP, Haziran Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse kesin bir \u201cpas\u201d ihtimaline i\u015faret ederken, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 enerji maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle 2026\u2019da herhangi bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 art\u0131k Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 olarak ima ediyor. Projeksiyonlar, 2026 boyunca uzayan bir politika molas\u0131na, gev\u015femenin ise 2027\u2019de 2\u00c727\u2019nin sonu ve 4\u00c727\u2019nin sonuna planlanan iki faiz indirimiyle yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporunun (275 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %3,8\u2019e gerilemesi) faiz beklentilerini temelden yeniden belirledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla birlikte s\u00fcregelen enflasyon endi\u015feleri de eklendi\u011finde, bu y\u0131l herhangi bir faiz indirimi ihtimali ortadan kalkt\u0131. Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131k tamamen gev\u015femeden, uzun s\u00fcreli bir faiz sabitine kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkilileri giderek daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasa da bunu fiyatl\u0131yor: CME FedWatch Tool, yakla\u015fan Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda pas ge\u00e7ilmesini neredeyse kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bi\u00e7imde %40\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k indirimlerin zamanlamas\u0131ndan ziyade bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131m olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda; bu da ciddi bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Buna y\u00f6nelik olarak, Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi oynakl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Portf\u00f6yleri y\u0131l sonuna kadar s\u00fcrebilecek uzun bir s\u0131k\u0131 politika d\u00f6nemini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde yeniden konumland\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Bu kapsamda, daha y\u00fcksek getirileri hedefleyen opsiyonlara bak\u0131yoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda put al\u0131m\u0131 gibi. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131 da olas\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7; bu da di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, enflasyon d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn son a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n en inat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve Fed\u2019i piyasalar\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. 2022-2023\u2019te de benzer bir dinamik g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik erken bahisler defalarca cezaland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle art\u0131k 2026\u2019n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda uzayan bir politika molas\u0131n\u0131, gev\u015femenin ise ancak 2027 ortas\u0131nda ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi bir senaryoyu modelliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019den indirim hayali rafa m\u0131 kalkt\u0131? G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131, revizyonlar ve 95 dolara yak\u0131n petrol, Haziran\u2019da \u201cpas\u201d\u0131 kesinle\u015ftirdi; 2026 indirimi zay\u0131flad\u0131, Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar %40 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49505\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}