ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verilerinin Federal Rezerv\u2019e (Fed) ili\u015fkin beklentilerin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 hisse senetleri ve tahviller \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131, GO\u00dc para birimleri (EMFX) \u00fczerinde G10 d\u00f6vizlerine k\u0131yasla bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililerin para birimini istikrara kavu\u015fturma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Kore wonu pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu arada USD\/JPY, 160,39\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra yeniden 160,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; bu seviye, daha \u00f6nce m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen 30 Nisan zirvesi 160,72\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, y\u0131l sonuna kadar hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n 3,75\u20134,00\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin iyile\u015fmesi ve enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ayda neredeyse 50 baz puanl\u0131k ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131: yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) temas\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme, daha y\u00fcksek beklenen Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama. Makale, yapay zek\u00e2 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve edit edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisinin deste\u011fiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sa\u011flam kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en cuma yay\u0131mlanan son istihdam raporu, ABD\u2019nin may\u0131sta beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 245 bin istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,8 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bu s\u00fcreklilik arz eden g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019in politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in pek az neden oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon temel belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. En son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu nedenle, vadeli piyasalarda 2026 sonuna kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi, sermaye giri\u015flerini destekleyerek dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi de g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011fiyle dolara destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 rallide yava\u015flama ve artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla birlikte hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu t\u00fcr belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar genellikle dolar\u0131n g\u00f6reli g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2024\u2019te m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen 160 seviyesini yeniden test eden USD\/JPY paritesinde g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Fed ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynamak i\u00e7in cazip bir ara\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, paritede olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesinden faydalan\u0131rken, Japon yetkililerin yeni m\u00fcdahalesi halinde riski \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mlamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u015eahin Fed duru\u015fu ile k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n birle\u015fimi, bu piyasalar i\u00e7in zor bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u00fcregelen bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimi ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esiyor: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 Fed\u2019de ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlat\u0131rken petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. EMFX bask\u0131land\u0131, won ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131; USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 test edip geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49503\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}