ABD dolar\u0131, ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin Fed yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 ve hisse senetlerinde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f tonunun etkisiyle destek buldu; odak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerinde. Fed\u2019in 17 Haziran\u2019daki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki sessiz (blackout) d\u00f6nemde olmas\u0131, daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika fiyatlamas\u0131na yak\u0131n vadede kar\u015f\u0131 denge olu\u015fturabilecek unsurlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Beklentiler, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4 seviyesinin \u00fczerine do\u011fru ilerlemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131rken, nihai talep \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6 civar\u0131nda tutunaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n gev\u015feme e\u011filiminden uzakla\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklemesiyle, toplant\u0131ya kadar dolar\u0131 destekli tutuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011fu ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel etkenlerin fiyatlamay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle 100,25\/65 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin test edilebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Riskli varl\u0131klardaki geri \u00e7ekilme ve geli\u015fen piyasa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131, tarihsel olarak dolar\u0131 desteklerken, \u00f6zellikle yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 rezerv y\u00f6neticilerinin FX m\u00fcdahalesini finanse etmek i\u00e7in tahvil varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 satmas\u0131 durumunda ABD Hazine tahvillerini (Treasuries) de destekleyebilir. Ayr\u0131 olarak Kore Ulusal Emeklilik Servisi, yabanc\u0131 varl\u0131klardaki koruma (hedge) oran\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve istisnai d\u00f6nemlerde referans hedge oran\u0131n\u0131n %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltilebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu ad\u0131m\u0131n, bu hafta dolar \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n, \u015fahin Fed yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 ve hisse senetlerindeki tedirgin tonla destek buldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen kritik ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verileri \u00f6ncesine denk geliyor. Fed\u2019in 18 Haziran\u2019daki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde sessiz (blackout) d\u00f6nemine girmesiyle, yetkililerin piyasadaki daha s\u0131k\u0131 fiyatlamaya kar\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemsel bir itiraz geli\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, May\u0131s man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; konsens\u00fcs tahminler y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8 civar\u0131nda. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri art\u0131k Temmuz sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca bir ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesiyle, dolar\u0131n FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar talep g\u00f6rmeye devam edece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Riskli varl\u0131klarda, \u00f6zellikle son iki haftada %4,5 geri \u00e7ekilen teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme, genellikle dolar lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu dinamik, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel hisse senetlerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu ortam, geli\u015fen piyasa para birimleri \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 105,85 civar\u0131nda bulunan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulmaya devam etmesi ve 106,50\/75 b\u00f6lgesindeki direncin test edilmesine e\u011filimli olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Son d\u00f6nemdeki bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, enflasyon verileri ve Fed politikas\u0131 gibi k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel fakt\u00f6rlerin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirleyici oldu\u011funu net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha g\u00fcvercin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 USD\u2019de al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejileri (\u00f6rne\u011fin call spread al\u0131m\u0131) \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik veri haftas\u0131: \u015eahin Fed yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, ABD enflasyonu \u00f6ncesinde dolar\u0131 destekliyor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE 4% \u00fcst\u00fc, \u00dcFE 6% beklentisi DXY\u2019yi diren\u00e7lere ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}