TD Securities ekonomistleri, May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE verilerinin \u00e7ekirdek fiyatlarda ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ederken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kurum, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,23, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken; man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise ilave 0,4 puanl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2\u2019ye t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Beklentiler, \u00f6nceki raporda ge\u00e7ici bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen bar\u0131nma kaleminde \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d temas\u0131na dayan\u0131rken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc u\u00e7ak biletleri \u00fczerinden \u00e7ekirdek hizmetlere yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Detaylarda, May\u0131s\u2019ta mal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,13 artaca\u011f\u0131; bunun da \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalamayla uyumlu oldu\u011fu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n, ev e\u015fyalar\u0131, giyim ve di\u011fer kategorilerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015flerle birlikte ta\u015f\u0131tlar hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek mallardan gelmesi bekleniyor. \u0130kinci el ara\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131n ise bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dengeleyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, petrol fiyat \u015foku ve devam eden tarife ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011finin Haziran\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek segmenti y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,0\u2019a do\u011fru itmesi beklenirken; jet yak\u0131t maliyetlerinin u\u00e7ak biletlerine varsay\u0131landan daha fazla yans\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin bulundu\u011fu ve 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda iyile\u015fmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn tarihi 8 Haziran 2026 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yakla\u015fan May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE raporunun enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131mla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmesini bekliyoruz. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 d\u00fczeyinde gelmesini, man\u015fet verinin ise \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %4,2\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019den yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisini zora sokuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Haziran 2026 ba\u015f\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %45\u2019e yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na oynayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l daha az faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek SOFR vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek vadeli kontratlar \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in etkin bir strateji olabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve u\u00e7ak biletlerinin y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi riskleri, bu pozisyonlanmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verisinde s\u00fcrpriz potansiyeli nedeniyle, volatilite piyasalar\u0131nda da f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, beklentilerden belirgin sapma g\u00f6steren T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 VIX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2025 sonlar\u0131ndaki beklenmedik ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler, VIX\u2019in ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. K\u0131sa vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, olas\u0131 bir piyasa \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir koruma sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Devam eden \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin vurgu, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ekliyor ve bu risk daha geni\u015f enflasyon dinamiklerine yans\u0131yabilir. K\u00fcresel referans petrol fiyat\u0131 Brent, son bir ayda %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 92 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Jeopolitik gerilimin t\u0131rmanarak enflasyonu daha da yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi bir senaryoya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ham petrol \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesinde anlaml\u0131 bir ilerleme \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Ta\u015f\u0131tlar hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek mal fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, bar\u0131nma maliyetleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde normalle\u015fiyor. Bu da, t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin y\u0131l sonuna kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve temkinli bir Fed temas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda kurgulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00dcFE\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da: TD Securities, May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %2,8\u2019de kal\u0131p man\u015fetin %4,2\u2019ye t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enerji-u\u00e7ak bileti bask\u0131s\u0131yla Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminin \u00f6telenebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49496\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}