Son ABD istihdam verileri, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki hareketleri \u00f6nceki bant aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yarak Trump y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f bir ABD Dolar\u0131 beklentilerini sorgulatt\u0131. Veriler, ABD\u2019nin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 temas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nden (FOMC) yeniden y\u00fckselen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi ve artan enflasyon riskleri, Dolar\u0131n de\u011ferinin a\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 zora sokuyor. Buna paralel olarak Avrupa ve Asya daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, enerji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zengin bir ekonomi olan ABD\u2019nin bu \u015foku absorbe etmede daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa dinamikleri, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan de\u011fi\u015fti; istihdam 89 binlik konsens\u00fcs beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 120 bin artt\u0131. Bu s\u00fcrpriz, enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karsa ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenip s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeyece\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheleri besledi. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin riskler de, Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00fczerinden petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 tehdidi ve daha y\u00fcksek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 potansiyeli nedeniyle g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum tahvil getirilerini ve Dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen son ABD istihdam raporu, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 sakin seyrinden \u00e7\u0131kararak bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bunu, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yayg\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan bir meydan okuma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na Avrupa veya Asya\u2019dan \u00e7ok daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Artan bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma, euro ve yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in dolar endeksinde (DXY) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya EUR\/USD paritesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon riskinin birle\u015fimi, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirmesini daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in takvimi \u00f6teliyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin ya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 ya da y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterece\u011fi beklentisiyle faiz t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, May\u0131s 2026 i\u00e7in T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steren en g\u00fcncel enflasyon verisiyle de destekleniyor; s\u00f6z konusu seviye dezenflasyon anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da devam eden jeopolitik gerilimleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flarken dahi inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen dinami\u011fe benziyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerdeki s\u00fcregelen t\u0131kanma, petrol arz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan net bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor; bu da enflasyonu ve tahvil getirilerini uzun bir s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilir. Bu senaryo, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u201d temas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor. Daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcmanlarda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu riske do\u011frudan bir pozisyon olarak ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) elde tutulmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok istihdam verisi dolarda zay\u0131flama hik\u00e2yesini bozdu! ABD\u2019nin enerji avantaj\u0131, enflasyon ve Fed\u2019in yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi DXY\u2019yi destekliyor; euro\/yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun dolar, petrol call\u2019lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}