Kanada dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) faiz karar\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Beklentiler, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019si \u00f6nc\u00fc %2,4 okumas\u0131na k\u0131yasla %2,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, BoC\u2019nin politika faizini %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evriliyor; bu veri, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) i\u00e7in faiz fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendiren ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergelerden biri.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i veriler daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; May\u0131s istihdam\u0131 10 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 87,8 bin artt\u0131 ve Nisan\u2019daki 17,7 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,9 ile beklentilere paralel geldi. Para birimi ayr\u0131ca, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n acil ate\u015fkes aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert geri \u00e7ekilmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131yla da kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; bu t\u00fcr bir hareket, Kanada gibi net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri \u00fczerinde genellikle olumsuz etki yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, BoC\u2019nin faizi %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n duruyor; bu da para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gergin bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Bu temkinli duru\u015f, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan bizler i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ana \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, piyasan\u0131n \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d beklentisi ile son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro veriler aras\u0131nda. Nisan enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve May\u0131s\u2019ta 87.800\u2019l\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir \u201cduraklama\u201ddan ziyade faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak merkez bankalar\u0131, enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in bu denli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyallere tepki verme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan, piyasan\u0131n sabit tutma konsens\u00fcs\u00fc yanl\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir belirsizlik varken, volatilitede s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel; bu t\u00fcr iki \u00f6nemli verinin ayn\u0131 g\u00fcne denk geldi\u011fi haftalarda bir haftal\u0131k volatilite \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %6-7 band\u0131ndaki seviyelerden %10\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabiliyor. Her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle bu hafta sonu veya gelecek hafta vade biti\u015fli USD\/CAD straddle ya da strangle sat\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu sayede, BoC\u2019nin s\u00fcrpriz bir art\u0131\u015fla CAD\u2019i h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi durumunda da, beklendi\u011fi gibi sabit b\u0131rak\u0131p g\u00fcvercin bir ileti\u015fimle CAD\u2019i zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 halinde de kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011fabilir. BoC karar\u0131 ile ABD T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 g\u00fcne denk gelmesi, anlaml\u0131 bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131n zamanda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u201cloonie\u201d \u00fczerinde ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k katman\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Enerji cephesindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurti\u00e7i verilerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ece\u011fine inan\u0131yorsak, daha basit y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hamle olarak do\u011frudan USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi ve BoC\u2019nin temkinli kalmas\u0131 halinde USD\/CAD kurunun y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD enflasyon verisi i\u00e7in de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek BoC\u2019nin ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fe ek destek (tailwind) sa\u011flayabilir. Bu \u00e7ifte risk, ayn\u0131 anda iki b\u00fcy\u00fck veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya gelmesi nedeniyle volatilite temelli strateji tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalarda g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba: BoC karar\u0131 ve ABD T\u00dcFE ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn, CAD\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon\/istihdam verilerine kar\u015f\u0131n faiz sabit beklentisi, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birle\u015fince volatilite ve opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}