SpaceX\u2019in 12 Haziran\u2019da kote olmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. \u015eirket 1,75 trilyon dolarl\u0131k piyasa de\u011feri hedefliyor; hisse ba\u015f\u0131na 135 dolardan 75 milyar dolar kaynak toplamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. \u0130lk g\u00fcn de\u011ferlemenin 2 trilyon dolara kadar esneyebilece\u011fi konu\u015fulurken, 2030\u2019a kadar yapay zek\u00e2 gelirinin 100 kat artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri de dile getiriliyor. \u015eirket, talep toplama (bookbuilding) \u00f6ncesinde 135 dolarl\u0131k fiyat\u0131 belirledi. Talep g\u00f6stergeleri aras\u0131nda Cerebras\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 kat fazla talep g\u00f6rmesi, %30\u2019luk bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tahsisi ve Japonya diliminin %25 art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. SpaceX, izahnamesinde G\u00fcne\u015f\u2019in \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u201cyakalamaktan\u201d 1 milyona kadar uydu i\u015fletmeye uzanan hedeflerini; ayr\u0131ca 2028\u2019den itibaren y\u00f6r\u00fcngede yapay zek\u00e2 hesaplama kapasitesi devreye alma planlar\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130zahname finansallar\u0131nda ana k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k motoru olarak Starlink \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: 2025 geliri 11,4 milyar dolar, d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f FAV\u00d6K\u2019\u00fc 7,2 milyar dolar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Uzay (Space) segmenti 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k Starship harcamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcstlenmesine ra\u011fmen faaliyet d\u00fczeyinde zarar etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. SpaceX, 2025\u2019te 4,9 milyar dolar zarar ve 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de ilave 4,3 milyar dolar zarar bildirdi. Starlink\u2019te abonelik ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama gelir (ARPU) 2023\u2019te ayl\u0131k 99 dolardan 91 dolara, ard\u0131ndan 81 dolara ve 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de 66 dolara gerilerken, abone say\u0131s\u0131 10,3 milyona yakla\u015ft\u0131. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda b\u00fcnyeye kat\u0131lan xAI, 2025\u2019te 6,4 milyar dolar faaliyet zarar\u0131 yazd\u0131; izahname toplam adreslenebilir pazar\u0131 28,5 trilyon dolar (26,5 trilyon dolar\u0131 yapay zek\u00e2) olarak hesapl\u0131yor ve 90 g\u00fcn ihbarla iptal edilebilir ayl\u0131k 1,25 milyar dolarl\u0131k Anthropic s\u00f6zle\u015fmesine, Cursor\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k tamam\u0131 hisse opsiyonuna ve Tesla ile Intel\u2019in yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Terafab\u2019a ili\u015fkin ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 olmayan bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveye at\u0131f yap\u0131yor. Yapay zek\u00e2 i\u00e7in sermaye harcamas\u0131 2025\u2019te 12,7 milyar dolar oldu ve 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de toplam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcne ula\u015ft\u0131; ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyrekte yat\u0131r\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 16,7 milyar dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Nakit, 24,7 milyar dolardan mart sonu itibar\u0131yla 15,9 milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015ferken, bor\u00e7 29,1 milyar dolar seviyesinde. S&P Dow Jones\u2019un k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k kurallar\u0131 SpaceX\u2019in \u015fimdilik S&P 500\u2019e girmesini engelliyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n NASDAQ-100\u2019de Nasdaq\u2019a dahil edilmenin kotasyondan yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor ve Russell endeksleri bunu izleyebilir. Endeks kaynakl\u0131 al\u0131m tahminleri, 30 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki pasif varl\u0131klar i\u00e7inde 22 milyar\u201360 milyar dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. \u0130\u00e7eriden sat\u0131\u015f (insider selling) ilk \u00e7eyreklik finansallar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ikinci i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren (muhtemelen a\u011fustos) ba\u015flayacak \u015fekilde kurgulanm\u0131\u015f; \u201cfriends-and-family\u201d tahsisinde lock-up bulunmuyor. Dosyada ayr\u0131ca FTC ve Avrupa\u2019daki soru\u015fturma\/inceleme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n
12 Haziran kotasyonu \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk a\u015famada sert ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket bekliyoruz. Halka arz \u00f6ncesi \u201cgri piyasa\u201d verileri, 135 dolarl\u0131k halka arz fiyat\u0131na k\u0131yasla ciddi bir primle, g\u00f6sterge tekliflerin 180 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da hisseye giri\u015f i\u00e7in kuyru\u011fun uzun oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor. K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, ilk g\u00fcn\/ilk g\u00fcnler ya\u015fanabilecek bu s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 yakalamak olmal\u0131; zira bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 talebi ve ka\u00e7\u0131rma korkusu (FOMO), i\u015flemlerin ilk birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde temel risklere dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131 muhtemelen bask\u0131layacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk kote opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r; \u00f6nc\u00fc sinyaller, ilk ayl\u0131k vadede IV\u2019nin %150\u2019yi a\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum prim satmay\u0131 istisnai derecede riskli k\u0131larken, do\u011frudan al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc call\/put pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da pahal\u0131 hale getirir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz volatilite \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne (volatility crush) kar\u015f\u0131 maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejilerde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin maliyeti kapatan call spread\u2019lerde\u2014ilk y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Halka arz sonras\u0131 izlenecek ana kataliz\u00f6r, endeks fonlar\u0131ndan gelecek zorunlu al\u0131mlar olacak. Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 dahil etme kural\u0131, NASDAQ-100\u2019\u00fc takip eden pasif fonlar\u0131n, fiyattan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde hisseyi temmuz ba\u015f\u0131 civar\u0131nda almak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir talep dalgas\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bank of America\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihli bir anketi, kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun halka arz sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f bekledi\u011fini, ancak yar\u0131dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n hisseyi temel olarak pahal\u0131 buldu\u011funu ve alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde satmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyor; bu da endekse dahil olman\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 likiditeyi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in kullanabileceklerine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu paterni daha \u00f6nce, \u00f6zellikle Tesla\u2019n\u0131n 2020 sonundaki S&P 500\u2019e dahil edilme s\u00fcrecinde g\u00f6rd\u00fck; hisse, endeks al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcne neredeyse denk d\u00fc\u015fecek \u015fekilde zirve yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. SpaceX takvimi, ilk i\u00e7eriden sat\u0131\u015f k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n (lock-up) a\u011fustostaki ilk finansal sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan sona erecek bi\u00e7imde kurgulanm\u0131\u015f; bu da pasif talebin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, en bilgili sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, fiyat duyars\u0131z en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeni emdi\u011fi bir piyasaya pay da\u011f\u0131tmaya ba\u015flayabildi\u011fi bir senaryo olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle stratejimizi iki a\u015famal\u0131 kurguluyoruz. \u0130lk a\u015famada, ilk s\u0131\u00e7ramadan ve endekse dahil olma s\u00fcrecine kadar s\u00fcrebilecek y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131; muhtemelen temmuz vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 hedefleriz. Ard\u0131ndan y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131rlanarak, yap\u0131sal al\u0131m\u0131n s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesi ve i\u00e7eriden sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla dinami\u011fin de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fi d\u00f6neme pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, a\u011fustos sonu ve sonras\u0131na tarihlenen put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi planlar\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler 12 Haziran\u2019da: SpaceX 135 dolardan 75 milyar dolar hedefliyor, gri piyasada 180 dolar konu\u015fuluyor. Starlink b\u00fcy\u00fcrken zarar\/bor\u00e7 bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; NASDAQ-100 dahil talebi, a\u011fustos i\u00e7eriden sat\u0131\u015f riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47668,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}