ING, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bu y\u0131l ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini ve piyasalar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek sterlinin hem euro hem de ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kurum, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 21 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, \u015firketlerin enflasyon beklentilerine ili\u015fkin verilerin ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerine dair alg\u0131lanan riskleri azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha \u015fahin bir pozisyonda bulunmas\u0131 ve hisse senetlerinde genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lgan\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131yla birlikte ING, \u00e7aprazda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Kurum, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin yeniden 0,8680\u2019e do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilece\u011fini, GBP\/USD\u2019nin ise 1,3300 seviyesini test edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131 halinde 1,3200\u2019e kadar bir \u201cu\u00e7 risk\u201din de masada oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisi beklentilerin alt\u0131nda, %2,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu da BoE\u2019ye ikinci tur enflasyon etkilerinin kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funa dair g\u00fcven veriyor. Bu politika temkinlili\u011finin, sterlinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir patikaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini not ediyoruz; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde son enflasyon verisi %3,1 ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) da, may\u0131s istihdam raporunun 210 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan kararl\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyor. Teredd\u00fctl\u00fc bir BoE ile daha kararl\u0131 emsalleri aras\u0131ndaki bu artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn temel s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, \u201crisk-on\u201d para birimi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi nedeniyle de k\u0131r\u0131lgan; bu t\u00fcr para birimleri yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bozuldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde genellikle zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterir. \u00d6nemli bir korku g\u00f6stergesi olan VIX endeksi 19,5 seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasalar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda sermaye genellikle sterlinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p ABD dolar\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelir.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin ECB ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan hisse senedi arka plan\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin yeniden 0,8680 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket etmesini tercih ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7apraz kuru desteklemi\u015ftir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD taraf\u0131nda ise dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc s\u00fcrerken 1,3300 destek seviyesinin test edilmesine giden net bir yol g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Daha belirgin bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) senaryosunda 1,3200\u2019e do\u011fru bir u\u00e7 riskin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131na put opsiyonlar\u0131yla ya da vadeli kontrat satarak pozisyon almak temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin i\u00e7in alarm zilleri! ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re BoE ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken \u015fahin ECB ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor: EUR\/GBP 0,8680\u2019e, GBP\/USD 1,3300\u20131,3200\u2019e gerileyebilir. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49484\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}