Piyasalar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu nedenle euronun y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc, Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin sonraki ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmesi ve EUR\/USD i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerini nas\u0131l \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi\u011fi belirleyecek. Metin, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesinin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da para biriminde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini ve ECB beklentileri ile di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi pozisyonlarda bir miktar normalle\u015fmeyi tetikleyebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun, ECB\u2019nin son \u00fc\u00e7 Personel Projeksiyonu\u2019nda varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyeler civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor; bu da d\u00f6viz kurunun art\u0131k Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2025 varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7medi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u015fahin fiyatlamadaki son s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n para birimini ne seviye ne de pozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan destekleyemedi\u011fi; euronun iFlow\u2019da h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201ceksik elde tutulan\u201d (underheld) olarak nitelendirildi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, metin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha zay\u0131f bir EUR\u2019nun ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara yard\u0131mc\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu Per\u015fembe Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z karar\u0131n kendisi de\u011fil. Kritik unsur ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme olacak; zira ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin, Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesini engellemesini bekliyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI verisinin 49,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son veriler bu temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na duraklama i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Euro zaten ECB\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce projekte etti\u011fi seviyeler civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Banka art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir para birimine yeti\u015fmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor. May\u0131s\u2019ta man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,1\u2019e gerilemesiyle agresif ad\u0131mlara duyulan aciliyet azald\u0131 ve ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemek i\u00e7in \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha zay\u0131f bir Euro\u2019nun tercih edilebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu da son d\u00f6nemdeki \u015fahin beklentilerin EUR\/USD kuruna anlaml\u0131 bir destek sa\u011flayamamas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, faizlerin artsa bile para biriminin zay\u0131flayabildi\u011fi klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvercin art\u0131r\u0131m\u201d (dovish hike) senaryosu yarat\u0131yor. Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckselmi\u015fken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak ad\u0131na vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da cazip bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2024 sonlar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklenen bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, temkinli ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn etkisiyle paritenin sat\u0131\u015f yemesi izlemi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131ca son CFTC verileri, Euro\u2019da net spek\u00fclatif uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da inanc\u0131n (conviction) zaten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa ve para biriminin politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin bir mesaja kar\u015f\u0131 \u015foku absorbe edecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel deste\u011finin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de: 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131, as\u0131l belirleyici g\u00fcvercin y\u00f6nlendirme. B\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleri ve zay\u0131f PMI s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; euro underheld, yukar\u0131 potansiyel k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131. Strateji: EUR\/USD put, OTM call spread. Net uzunlar geriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49482\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}