Brent petrol, \u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerin Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz riskinin fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. Danske Bank\u2019\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibi, hareketi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n verebilecek daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgesel anla\u015fmada ilerleme sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ba\u011flarken, yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) g\u00fcndemi \u00f6ncesinde genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na da i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc kuzey \u0130srail\u2019e balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gece saatlerinde \u0130ran i\u00e7inde hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi; bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hamle, Nisan\u2019daki ate\u015fkesten bu yana ilk kez ya\u015fanan t\u00fcrden bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde Beyrut\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Brent, sabah i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 art\u0131\u015fla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131na y\u00fckselirken, t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gece 96,5 ABD dolar\/varil seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130srail\u2019den askeri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermemesini istedi\u011fini ve bu gerilimin olas\u0131 bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 raydan \u00e7\u0131karmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini, piyasada kayg\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu jeopolitik gerilim, petrol opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatiliteyi do\u011frudan yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) muhtemelen 45\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131; aylard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bu seviyenin opsiyon primlerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda endi\u015felenmesi yerinde; olas\u0131 bir kesinti k\u00fcresel arz \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda ve a\u011f\u0131r sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019ne g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyadaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i bu dar bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu temel risk, mevcut fiyat primini hakl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7ok daha yukar\u0131 hareket edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Ancak y\u00fcksek primler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden k\u00e2r etmeyi hedefleyen uzun straddle gibi stratejiler de de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ikili do\u011fas\u0131\u2014gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde fiyatlar\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesi ya da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi halinde fiyatlar\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelmesi\u2014salt volatiliteye oynayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
2019\u2019daki Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131; s\u00f6z konusu olay, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019lik bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, arz endi\u015felerinin hafiflemesi ve stratejik rezervlerin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131yla birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geri verilmi\u015fti. Bu da ilk tepkinin sert olabilece\u011fini, ancak ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011findi\u011fi t\u00fcrden diplomatik \u00e7abalar ivme kazan\u0131rsa rallinin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE verisi ve ECB g\u00fcndemi de yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Mevcut petrol fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyon verilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131yabilir ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fu korumaya zorlayabilir. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir T\u00dcFE okumas\u0131, daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck talepte azalma fiyatlamas\u0131yla petrol i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur (headwind) yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: \u0130srail-\u0130ran gerilimiyle Brent 96 dolara dayand\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz arz riski ve OVX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama opsiyon primlerini art\u0131r\u0131yor; ABD T\u00dcFE ve ECB \u00f6ncesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}