USD net uzun vadeli (futures) pozisyonlanma d\u00f6rt kattan fazla artarak 850 kontrattan 3.758 kontrata y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasa konumlanmas\u0131n\u0131n Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Nisan ay\u0131 ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi, fiyatlar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek beklentilerle genel olarak uyumlu geldi; JOLTS verisi ise i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
OIS e\u011frisi \u00fczerinden fiyatlanan faiz patikas\u0131, Haziran Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmedi\u011fini, y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklendi\u011fini ima ediyor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 enflasyon okumalar\u0131, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 istihdam verileri ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerinin birle\u015fimi, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131nda USD maruziyetine talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Son Commitment of Traders raporuna g\u00f6re ABD dolar\u0131nda net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n son d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye devam edece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik inanc\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. S\u00f6z konusu e\u011filim, piyasan\u0131n ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece performans\u0131na duydu\u011fu g\u00fcveni yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tercih etti\u011fimiz enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan son Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9 ile beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n temel nedeni. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
JOLTS verisi i\u015f ilanlar\u0131n\u0131n 8,2 milyona do\u011fru hafif\u00e7e geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret etse de, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 genel olarak sa\u011flam kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in keskin bir ekonomik yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi olu\u015fmadan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutabilmesine alan tan\u0131yor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir varl\u0131k olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay vadeli Dolar Endeksi (DXY) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu strateji, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolara yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flarken azami riski de tan\u0131mlar. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131, dolar i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r niteli\u011finde olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Fed faizleri sabit tutarken Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fsa dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalma e\u011filimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, USD\u2019de net uzun futures pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 temkinli ve uygun buluyoruz. ABD ile di\u011fer G7 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 olas\u0131 olmayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar deste\u011fi sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: USD net uzun futures pozisyonu 850\u2019den 3.758\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. PCE ve JOLTS g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, OIS Haziran\u2019da pas, y\u0131l sonuna art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor; DXY call ilgisi art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49479\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}