ABD ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), \u0130srail-\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma endi\u015fesini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla 4 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde artarak 92,52 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husiler, \u0130srail\u2019i hedef ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de \u0130srail\u2019e ait gemilere y\u00f6nelik bir yasak ilan ettiklerini duyurdu. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, \u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda, zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan ate\u015fkesi daha da zorlayan yeni bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan OPEC+ fiyatlar\u0131 so\u011futma amac\u0131yla Temmuz\u2019dan itibaren arz\u0131 188 bin varil art\u0131rma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, \u015fubat sonundaki sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana be\u015finci ham petrol \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 niteli\u011finde. WTI, Brent ve Dubai Crude ile birlikte ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6sterge petrol t\u00fcrlerinden biri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken; ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinden fiyatlan\u0131yor ve fiyat olu\u015fumu arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve OPEC kararlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekilleniyor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca haftal\u0131k ABD stok verileri yer al\u0131yor: API verisi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, EIA verisi ise ertesi g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor; iki raporun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131ns\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131yla, jeopolitik risk priminin art\u0131k piyasaya kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde yerle\u015fti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. \u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Husilerin hamleleriyle de b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek arz tarafl\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir kriz ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehdit, \u015fimdilik tipik arz-talep dinamiklerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011finden, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n kayg\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bi\u00e7imde art\u0131yor ve bu durum opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) ge\u00e7en hafta 45\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret eden seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha olas\u0131 yeni fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftaki Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu, beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki 5,2 milyon varillik stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. Denizcilik verilerinin ge\u00e7i\u015flerde %30\u2019luk bir azalmaya i\u015faret etmesiyle birlikte, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden tanker trafi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu trendin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. ABD stoklar\u0131n\u0131n daha da geriledi\u011fine dair ek teyit i\u00e7in bu haftaki API ve EIA raporlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 1990\u2019daki Birinci K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat hareketlerini and\u0131r\u0131yor; ilk \u015foklar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan uzun s\u00fcreli y\u00fcksek volatilite d\u00f6nemi ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan ziyade kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlara pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. Ayr\u0131ca ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan 188 bin varillik OPEC+ arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede \u00f6nemsiz g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. Fiili bir abluka bu varillerin piyasaya ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, resmi \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sembolik kal\u0131r. Odak, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan fiziksel k\u0131s\u0131tlar \u00fczerinde olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: WTI \u0130srail-\u0130ran gerilimi ve Husi hamleleriyle 4+ dolar s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 92,52\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. OPEC+ 188 bin varil art\u0131\u015fa gitti; ancak risk primi, y\u00fcksek volatilite ve stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri bask\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49476\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}