Piyasalar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesine pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu, Eyl\u00fcl 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk art\u0131\u015f olacak ve \u201ctamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Dikkat daha sonra ECB\u2019nin sonraki ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmesine ve bunun ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma alan\u0131na i\u015faret edip etmedi\u011fine kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ortaya konan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re, Temmuz\u2019da art arda bir art\u0131\u015fa gitmek erken olur; bunun yerine Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunun \u00f6tesinde, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enflasyonist bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da politikan\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye ge\u00e7mesini engelleyerek 2027\u2019de faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Ba\u011flam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, ECB bir \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde faizleri 4,5 puan art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak mevcut tablo, hedefe yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentileri ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve gerilimli kamu maliyesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu Per\u015fembe ECB\u2019den gelecek 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k \u201coldu bitti\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa bunu tamamen fiyatlad\u0131; \u00f6zellikle Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verilerinde May\u0131s enflasyonunun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,7\u2019de kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131. As\u0131l mesele faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kendisi de\u011fil, ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kullanaca\u011f\u0131 ifadeler.<\/p>\n
Temmuz\u2019da bir takip art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bunu teyit eden bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz olabilir. Bu, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131n\u0131 yatayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir; yaz boyunca istikrarl\u0131 faizlerden fayda sa\u011flayacak Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek bu nedenle anlaml\u0131 olabilir. Odak h\u0131zla Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kayacak; burada bir ad\u0131m daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 masada kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin eli, karma bir ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle ba\u011fl\u0131; HCOB Flash Euro B\u00f6lgesi Bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n 52,5 gibi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir seviyede olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lara enflasyonun kendi kendine so\u011fuyaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Bu arka plan, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa ve s\u0131\u011f kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
2022-2023\u2019te faizlerin 450 baz puan y\u00fckseldi\u011fi agresif d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn aksine, enflasyon beklentilerinin \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve kamu b\u00fct\u00e7elerindeki bask\u0131 daha \u201chafif\u201d bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 gerektiriyor. Daha uzun vadeli bakanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2027\u2019de olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine pozisyon alma f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 do\u011furuyor. Buna, uzun vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak veya faize duyarl\u0131 endeksler \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendirmek dahil olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de: Per\u015fembe 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f tamamen fiyatland\u0131. As\u0131l oyun bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda\u2014Temmuz\u2019da bekle-g\u00f6r, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir ad\u0131m ihtimali. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131p 2027 indirim alan\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49475","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49475"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49475\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49475"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49475"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49475"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}