Sterlin, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; GBP\/USD paritesi Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,3338 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 1,3316 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Federal Rezerv\u2019den (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte ABD dolar\u0131ndaki yenilenen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi takip etti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,10\u2019a yak\u0131n seyrini koruyarak cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatland\u0131: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re, may\u0131s ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin 85 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 172 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, bu y\u0131l en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %74,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi (bir hafta \u00f6nce %45,2). Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak may\u0131s ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verilerine ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak nisan ay\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD 1,3330 civar\u0131nda, 1,3434\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 38 seviyesine yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7 1,3434\u2019te ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3585 civar\u0131nda izlenirken, destek 1,3239 ve devam\u0131nda 1,3200 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,2550 seviyesi civar\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunda kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle paritenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 belirleyici. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 105,50 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor ve ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dinamik, sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlu bir ortam yaratmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD istihdam raporunun, 180 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 215 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi, daha agresif bir Fed beklentilerini belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch arac\u0131nda yans\u0131yan piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, yaz sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %65\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu oran, yaln\u0131zca bir ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan %40 seviyesine k\u0131yasla keskin bir art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi yava\u015flama sinyalleri veriyor; son GSYH verileri nisan ay\u0131nda %0,1\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funa ayak uydurmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Para politikas\u0131ndaki bu a\u00e7\u0131lan makas, sterline y\u00f6nelik negatif beklentimizin temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc konumunda.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n GBP\/USD\u2019de ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,2400 civar\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunabilir. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE raporu etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131kta bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread stratejisi uygulanabilir. Bu, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve pozisyonu finanse etmek ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki ekonomik belirsizli\u011fin kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucunda sterlinin tarihi dip seviyelere y\u00f6neldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi an\u0131msat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nem, bu t\u00fcr politika ayr\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n bir para birimini ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 cezaland\u0131rabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Kritik 1,2500 psikolojik seviyesinin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131, 1,2350\u2019ye do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin alarm veriyor: Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenince GBP\/USD 1,3316 ile \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE ve UK GSYH\u2019da; teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken 1,3239-1,3200 destekleri kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}