Societe Generale analizi, k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %14 gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen petrol\u00fcn, kesintinin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finin i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki verdi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu tablo, 1973 Arap ambargosu s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan %7\u2019lik kesintiyle k\u0131yaslan\u0131yor; ancak fiyatlar mart sonundaki %60 seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 artm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 1973\u2019te kaydedilen %134\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n da belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Notta, m\u00fc\u015fterilerle ele al\u0131nan ve birbirini dengeleyen on unsurdan bahsediliyor; bunlar aras\u0131nda \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 talep tahribat\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n alg\u0131lanan etkisini zay\u0131flatan yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimler, stok \u00e7eki\u015fleri, Washington\u2019dan destekleyici mesajlar ve g\u00fcven verici g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir vadeli e\u011fri yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, stoklar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e ve yak\u0131n vadeli arz daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a fiziksel piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ancak t\u00fcketicilerin pahal\u0131 spot kargolar i\u00e7in rekabet etmek yerine daha ucuz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eriterek ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ge\u00e7ici bir dinamik oldu\u011funu savunuyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ertelenmi\u015f (uzun vadeli) fiyatlaman\u0131n, OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in gereken yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karamayacak kadar zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu; \u00fcreticilerin e\u011frinin daha ileri vadelerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedge i\u015flemlerinin de uzun vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131palamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu ekliyor. Stratejik rezervler yeniden in\u015fa edilirken ve stok konforu azald\u0131k\u00e7a, bankaya g\u00f6re piyasan\u0131n yeniden dengeye gelmesi i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak.<\/p>\n
Fiziksel petrol piyasas\u0131 ile mevcut fiyatlar aras\u0131nda belirgin bir kopukluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve bu durum bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck arz kesintilerine ra\u011fmen WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda oyalan\u0131yor; bunun, alttaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri de bunu destekliyor: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f beklenirken ge\u00e7en hafta 4,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, t\u00fcketicilerin daha pahal\u0131 spot piyasadan al\u0131m yapmak yerine mevcut, daha ucuz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmesiyle maskeleniyor. Bu, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan k\u0131sa vadeli bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm; zira stoklar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015f durumda. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu stoklar t\u00fckendik\u00e7e al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Vadeli e\u011fri, uzun vadeli istikrara ili\u015fkin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 bir sinyal veriyor; trader\u2019lar\u0131n bunu de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli kontrat\u0131 79 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye, yeni OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretim i\u00e7in gerekli sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmeye yetmiyor. Bu da, uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, gelecekte piyasay\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak daha y\u00fcksek fiyat ihtiyac\u0131na k\u0131yasla \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece ucuz fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in may\u0131s ay\u0131 Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisinin beklentileri a\u015farak 51,9\u2019a gelmesi gibi son ekonomik sinyaller, talep tahribat\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 1973 \u015foku sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nem ya da 2022\u2019deki h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gibi \u00f6rneklerde, ge\u00e7ici ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Stratejik petrol rezervlerinin nihayetinde yeniden doldurulmas\u0131 gere\u011fi de gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck talebe ek bir katman ekleyecek; bu da mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re arz %14 daralmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n petrol fiyat\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00f6n\u00fck: WTI 85 dolarda. Stok eritme ge\u00e7ici; stoklar dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fck\u00e7e spot s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek, daha y\u00fcksek fiyat ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49469\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}