DBS Group Research, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi ve y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentilerinin ard\u0131ndan 16\u201317 Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar deste\u011fin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. May\u0131s tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 172 bin ile 88 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelirken, Nisan verisi de 115 binden 172 bine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca 10 Haziran\u2019daki May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 ile \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 beklenen enflasyon, yak\u0131n vadede gev\u015feme beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmede ise, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde kurumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair soru i\u015faretleri g\u00fcndeme gelirse y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediliyor. USD\u2019nin FOMC sonras\u0131 patikas\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca gelecek verilere de\u011fil, Fed\u2019in \u201cyap\u0131sal\u201d bir \u201cstres testi\u201d olarak nitelenen bu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l y\u00f6netece\u011fine de ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131rken; s\u00f6z konusu s\u0131nav\u0131n sorunsuz atlat\u0131lamamas\u0131 halinde dolar deste\u011finin zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fi riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunu, k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine d\u00f6n\u00fck net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s\u2019ta 172 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 88 binlik piyasa beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde gelerek yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiilen ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. Bu tablo, 2026\u2019da olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden Fed\u2019in g\u00fcndemine daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde girmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi dikkatler 10 Haziran\u2019daki May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisine \u00e7evrildi; %4,2 ile \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Bu denli y\u00fcksek bir okuma, \u00f6zellikle ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) verilerinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesiyle, Fed\u2019in tonunu b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u015fahin tutacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 destekleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir haftada dolar deste\u011finin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. 17 Haziran\u2019daki a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde vadesi dolacak ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanabilir. Bu kritik g\u00fcndem maddelerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckselebilir; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinde dahi s\u00f6z konusu pozisyonlar\u0131 potansiyel olarak k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ve 17 Haziran\u2019daki FOMC bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131 para politikas\u0131nda siyasi bask\u0131lara boyun e\u011fip e\u011fmeyece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleyecek. Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunmada zay\u0131fl\u0131k alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131nda \u00f6nceki liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015flerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde dolarda sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Haziran\u2019\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda dolarda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye y\u00f6nelik taktiksel pozisyonlanma f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na zamanlanacak \u015fekilde USD \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya USD\/JPY gibi paritelerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) spread stratejileri kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentimizi hedge etmeye ya da toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fiminden getiri elde etmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar i\u00e7in kritik hafta: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve %4,2 beklenen T\u00dcFE, 16\u201317 Haziran FOMC\u2019ye kadar USD deste\u011fini koruyabilir. Ancak Kevin Warsh\u2019la Fed ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}