Yen, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. USD\/JPY, 30 Nisan\u2019daki iddia edilen m\u00fcdahalenin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 geri verip 160,00 \u00fczerini k\u0131rd\u0131ktan sonra 160,30 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 160,00 seviyesi, Japon yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131kl\u0131kla \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Resmi veriler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 2000\u2019den bu yana kay\u0131tlardaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek kapsaml\u0131 kur destek operasyonlar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131ca 30 Nisan\u2019da, nedeni netle\u015fmeyen sert bir hareketle USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 pip geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131na talep; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri ve Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n itidal \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130srail ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle desteklendi. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 172 bin artarak 85 binlik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; Nisan verisi de 115 binden 179 bine revize edildi. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Petrol, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc dip seviyelerden yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 dolar y\u00fckselirken Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,40 dolar seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Japonya\u2019da ise birinci \u00e7eyrek y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %2,1\u2019den %1,8\u2019e revize edildi; bu oran \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %1,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme %0,5\u2019te de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla, 8 Haziran 2026\u2019da USD\/JPY\u2019nin kritik 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. Buras\u0131, 30 Nisan\u2019da sert bir \u015fekilde 400 piplik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyen b\u00f6lgeyle ayn\u0131 alan; bu da yeni bir m\u00fcdahale ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek teyakkuzda olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar, Japon yetkililerin bu \u00e7izgiyi yeniden savunup savunmayaca\u011f\u0131yla \u015fekillenecek.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale tehdidi inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131; zira yetkililerin Nisan\u2019dakine benzer sert bir s\u00f6ylem kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son verileri, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan-May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in rekor 9,79 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 61 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu nedenle, yetkililerin kararl\u0131 bir hamle yapmas\u0131 halinde USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 riskini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatlamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu ABD dolar\u0131 uzun pozisyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ikna edici gerek\u00e7eler sunuyor. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 172 bin ile 85 binlik tahmini a\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Para politikas\u0131ndaki bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fma, pariteyi yukar\u0131 iten ana g\u00fc\u00e7 konumunda.<\/p>\n
Bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve z\u0131t etki nedeniyle oynakl\u0131kta belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Paritenin her iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cat-the-money straddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri makul bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Tarihsel olarak, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite son m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6neminde %8\u2019den %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselerek b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete pozisyon alanlar\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcllendirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm dikkatler gelecek hafta yap\u0131lacak Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olacak. Piyasa bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, beklentiden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ad\u0131m veya g\u00fcvercin y\u00f6nlendirme traderlar\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratabilir ve yende yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu geli\u015fme, yetkilileri ya m\u00fcdahaleye zorlayan ya da para biriminin daha fazla zay\u0131flamas\u0131na izin verilen bir s\u00fcrecin kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olabilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskin Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96,40 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba katmak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olan Japonya\u2019da y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ekonomiye zarar vererek yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck ve korunmas\u0131z \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u0131sa pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131rken daha temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiren bir di\u011fer unsur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen eriyor: USD\/JPY 160,30\u2019da ve \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d yeniden testte. Rezervler sert d\u00fc\u015ferken 9,79 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahale sinyali geliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131, Brent 96,40\u2019la dolar bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k zirvede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49466\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}