Sterlin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 faiz beklentilerinin Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklemesiyle GBP\/USD Avrupa saatlerinde 1,3340 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 1,3350 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tutundu. \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kuzey \u0130srail\u2019e f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131 ve orta kesimlerindeki hedefleri vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Tahran ise L\u00fcbnan\u2019a veya \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya \u201cezici ve kapsaml\u0131 bir yan\u0131t\u201d verilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Moskova b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak \u0130ran ve Umman taraf\u0131ndan belirlenecek yeni \u015fartlarla, transit \u00fccreti de dahil, i\u015fletilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu zemin, Greenback\u2019e olan talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de May\u0131s tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 172 bin artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki ay 179 binlik art\u0131\u015f ise 115 binden revize edildi ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 85 binlik beklentiyi a\u015farak y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olas\u0131 bir FED faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131, sava\u015f belirsizli\u011fi ve zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faiz art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in acele etmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 bu y\u0131l iki BoE indirimiyle faizin %3,25\u2019e inmesine i\u015faret ederken, daha sonra Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa kayd\u0131. GBP, MS 886\u2019ya uzanan ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle en eski para birimi olmaya devam ediyor ve d\u00f6viz i\u015flem hacminin %12\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor; 2022\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 630 milyar dolarl\u0131k hacme ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan pariteler aras\u0131nda %11 ile Cable, %3 ile GBP\/JPY ve %2 ile EUR\/GBP yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesiyle \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisi ile daha temkinli bir BoE\u2019nin birle\u015fimi, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Bu da yak\u0131n vadede parite i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde t\u0131rmanan gerilimler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyerek belirleyici bir unsur haline geliyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %5\u2019i a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu da Dolar\u2019a yarayan \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d e\u011filimini peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu risk primi, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015foklar\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131 para birimleri (sterlin gibi) \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler de ABD ile \u0130ngiltere aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu enflasyonun %3,8\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stererek \u015fahin FED beklentilerini gerek\u00e7elendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verileri May\u0131s ay\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; bu da BoE\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca kur dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite May\u0131s sonundan bu yana %20 artt\u0131 ve 2022\u2019deki \u201cmini b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d krizini hat\u0131rlatan seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. 1,3300\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alman\u0131n, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na temkinli bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik stres ile para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler kal\u0131c\u0131 kur trendlerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu nedenle, 1,3200 psikolojik destek seviyesini hedefleyerek GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ile \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan durumu aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131lan makastan faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin \u00e7ift tarafl\u0131 bask\u0131da: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Dolar\u2019a s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak talebi getirirken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00fcvercin BoE pariteyi 1,3350 alt\u0131nda tutuyor. Volatilite y\u00fckseliyor; 1,3300 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,3200 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49464\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}