Hindistan rupisi ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelerek dolar\u0131 desteklemesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ithalata duyarl\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla USD\/INR 95,65\u2019e do\u011fru ilerledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,00 civar\u0131nda tutunarak Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc hareketini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve son iki ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00f6lgesinde seyretti. Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda 18 Haziran vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131, \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin arz riski endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla %4,6 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 9.020 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD istihdam verileri Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131 172 bin olarak g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 85 bindi. Nisan verisi 115 binden 179 bine yukar\u0131 revize edildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3 ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu arka planda CME FedWatch arac\u0131, bu y\u0131l en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %73,8\u2019e y\u00fckseltti (bir hafta \u00f6nce %45,2). Hindistan odakl\u0131 ak\u0131mlar da negatif kald\u0131; Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), May\u0131s\u2019ta 55.963,33 crore rupi net sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Haziran\u2019da \u015fu ana kadar 30.814,47 crore rupi sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) \u00fczerindeki seyrini 95,4720\u2019nin \u00fczerinde korurken RSI 53,9\u2019da. Destekler 94,95 ve 94,00; diren\u00e7ler 96,30 ve 97,10 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortam dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hindistan rupisinde s\u00fcregelen bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k bekliyoruz. Beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD istihdam raporu ile Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, INR aleyhine \u201cm\u00fckemmel f\u0131rt\u0131na\u201d etkisi yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum USD\/INR paritesini 95,65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve May\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %3,6 ile beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde gelmesi, \u015fahin bir Fed senaryosunu destekliyor. Bu da dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirirken, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin iki ay\u0131n zirvelerinde sa\u011flam kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da sermayeyi ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na \u00e7ekmeye devam edecektir.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmesi nedeniyle rupi \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ran-\u0130srail hatt\u0131ndaki son t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert y\u00fckseltirken, \u00f6nc\u00fc verilere g\u00f6re Hindistan\u2019\u0131n May\u0131s 2026 ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 28,5 milyar dolara geni\u015flemesine yans\u0131d\u0131. S\u00fcregelen jeopolitik risk, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari dengesini bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Hindistan piyasalar\u0131ndan kayda de\u011fer sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; FII\u2019lar Haziran ba\u015f\u0131na kadar net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunu koruyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD faizlerinin y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi beklentisinin geli\u015fen piyasalardan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2013 \u201cTaper Tantrum\u201d d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Fed \u015fahin duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece bu e\u011filimin devam etmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle beklenen rupi de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan yararlanmak ad\u0131na USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir sonraki olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 baca\u011f\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in Temmuz vadede 96,00 veya 96,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 etraf\u0131na bak\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutarken anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyele maruziyet sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem (futures) taraf\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 95,47 civar\u0131n\u0131 kritik destek kabul ederek USD\/INR uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. 96,30 zirvesinin \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek 97,10 civar\u0131ndaki tarihi zirveye do\u011fru bir alan a\u00e7abilir. \u015eimdilik destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiririz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi alarm veriyor: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen petrol, USD\/INR\u2019yi 95,65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. DXY iki ay\u0131n zirvesinde; Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali art\u0131yor. FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, diren\u00e7 96,30.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49461\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}