AUD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn erken i\u015flemlerinde 113,05 civar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek ba\u015flad\u0131; 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de yap\u0131c\u0131 tutuyor. Avustralya dolar\u0131na destek, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika zemininden geliyor; bu y\u0131lki \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 politika faizini %4,35\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bununla birlikte momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flad\u0131: G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 43,94 seviyesinde ve 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda; bu durum, fiyat hareketi kilit ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalsa bile konsolidasyon riskine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lave y\u00fckseli\u015fler, Japon yetkililerin olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeniden artan hassasiyetle s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir; piyasa m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 tetikte. Grafikte diren\u00e7, Bollinger orta band\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 113,90 \u00e7evresinde k\u00fcmelenirken \u00fcst bant 114,90\u2019da bulunuyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise 112,90\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda (alt bantla hizal\u0131) bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, oda\u011f\u0131 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 111,60 seviyesine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY paritesinin 113,00 \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunu, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye odaklanan kararl\u0131 bir RBA destekliyor. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; zira Avustralya\u2019da faizlerin Japonya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu politika fark\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ana motoru konumunda.<\/p>\n
Bunu daha da inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lan unsur, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik enflasyon raporunda verinin %3,8 gelmesi; bu seviye RBA\u2019n\u0131n hedef band\u0131n\u0131n inatla \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken analistleri de \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019ya kadar bir ilave RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu veri, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu teyit ediyor ve AUD\u2019daki g\u00fcce sa\u011flam bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi amac\u0131yla Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale tehdidi bu i\u015flemin en b\u00fcy\u00fck riski. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken son d\u00f6nemde %2,5 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu durum Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) \u00fczerinde politikay\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan (MoF) gelen s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar kur hareketlerinin \u201c\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde s\u0131kla\u015f\u0131yor ve biz de bu seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine kar\u015f\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, basit (vanilla) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) alman\u0131n fazla riskli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 114,90 civar\u0131ndaki teknik diren\u00e7 belirgin ve Japon yetkililerin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi muhtemel bir b\u00f6lge; bu da fiyat i\u00e7in bir tavan olu\u015fturabilir. RSI momentumundaki zay\u0131flama da, \u015fimdilik sert yukar\u0131 ataklar\u0131n geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uygun strateji olarak bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. Temmuz 2026 vadeli olmak \u00fczere, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 113,50 civar\u0131nda bir call al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 115,00 civar\u0131nda bir call sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m; kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi halinde getiri potansiyeti sa\u011flarken, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azalt\u0131r ve olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale durumunda riski tan\u0131mlar\/s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Parite ivmesini koruyamaz ve 112,90\u2019daki ilk destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yaparsa, y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz ge\u00e7ici olarak ask\u0131ya al\u0131n\u0131r. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 111,60 civar\u0131na do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin sinyali olabilir. Bu senaryoda, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli bir korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 113,05\u2019te 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde; RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve %3,8 enflasyon AUD\u2019u ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak RSI 43,9, m\u00fcdahale riskiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; 113,90\/114,90 diren\u00e7, 112,90 alt\u0131 111,60 hedef. Bull call spread \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49454\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}