USD\/CHF ikinci seans \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi ve pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,7970 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130srail\u2019in, Yemen\u2019den \u0130srail topraklar\u0131na do\u011fru f\u0131rlat\u0131lan bir f\u00fczenin etkisiz h\u00e2le getirildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan artan g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Tel Aviv\u2019de hava sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sirenlerinin \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; \u0130ran destekli Husileri i\u00e7eren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma dinamikleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Beyrut\u2019taki \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131lara y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftirilerine ve Ba\u015fbakan Netanyahu ile Tahran aras\u0131nda diplomasi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u0130srail Savunma Kuvvetleri\u2019nin kuzey \u0130srail\u2019i hedef alan bir \u0130ran f\u00fcze salvosunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019daki askeri hedefleri vurdu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130ran birden fazla f\u00fcze dalgas\u0131 ate\u015flemi\u015f ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ilave ad\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 uyarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u0130srail ise t\u00fcm gelen f\u00fczelerin \u00f6nlendi\u011fini ve can kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. T\u0131rmanan gerilim enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da huzursuz etti.<\/p>\n
Greenback, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verilerinden de destek buldu. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 172 bin artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki ay verisi 115 binden 179 bine yukar\u0131 revize edildi ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, may\u0131s enflasyonunun %0,8 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,6 gelmesiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi; piyasalar politika faizinin 2026\u2019ya kadar %0\u2019da kalmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca CHF, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; baz\u0131 modeller EUR-CHF korelasyonunu %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6sterirken, 2011\u20132015 EUR \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131 %20\u2019yi a\u015fan bir hareketle sonlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle klasik bir g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bunun, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla birle\u015fmesi greenback i\u00e7in kuvvetli bir destek olu\u015fturuyor. Bu dinamikler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u015fekillenirken USD\/CHF paritesinin ilave y\u00fckseli\u015flere a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 giderek daha belirgin h\u00e2le geliyor. ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede (%4,3) seyretmesiyle, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki durumla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve bizim i\u00e7in net bir i\u015flem sinyali yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; bunda zay\u0131f enflasyon verileri etkili. May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki %0,6\u2019l\u0131k enflasyon okumas\u0131, SNB\u2019nin politika faizini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte %0\u2019da tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u015eahin bir Fed ile g\u00fcvercin bir SNB aras\u0131ndaki bu politika fark\u0131, USD\/CHF g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn temel belirleyicisi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bunu VIX endeksinin son g\u00fcnlerde 14\u2019ten 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF\u2019te al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Opsiyon primlerindeki art\u0131\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spread) daha maliyet-etkin bir alternatif olabilir.<\/p>\n
Artan jeopolitik gerilimler enerji piyasalar\u0131nda da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131; f\u00fcze at\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerle Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum k\u00fcresel enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve dolar\u0131n d\u00fcnyan\u0131n birincil rezerv para birimi rol\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Mevcut tablo, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvercin bir merkez bankas\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekledi: USD\/CHF 0,7970\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Zay\u0131f \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu SNB\u2019yi g\u00fcvercin b\u0131rakt\u0131; Fed-SNB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi besliyor. VIX ve Brent 95$ oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}