EUR\/JPY, \u00f6nceki seansta %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fleterek Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 184,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine ra\u011fmen \u00e7apraz, hem 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hem de dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 45,66 seviyesinde ve orta \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda; bu da fiyatlar k\u0131sa vadeli EMA band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131rken momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Grafikte EUR\/JPY, 184,40 civar\u0131ndaki simetrik \u00fc\u00e7genin alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bu da konsolidasyona i\u015faret ediyor. Bu s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 16 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 181,87\u2019ye, ard\u0131ndan 12 \u015eubat\u2019taki yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 180,81\u2019e do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Yukar\u0131 tarafta ilk diren\u00e7 185,05\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da, ard\u0131ndan 185,28\u2019deki dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da; \u00fc\u00e7genin \u00fcst band\u0131 ise 186,30 civar\u0131nda. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, 17 Nisan\u2019daki 187,95 ile g\u00f6r\u00fclen rekor zirveyi yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY paritesinin 184,40 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesiyle simetrik \u00fc\u00e7gen i\u00e7inde konsolide oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. RSI\u2019\u0131n 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 gibi teknik g\u00f6stergeler, k\u0131sa vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu deste\u011fin korunup korunmayaca\u011f\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f momentum dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Almanya sanayi \u00fcretiminin beklentilerin aksine %0,5 gerilemesi ve ge\u00e7en hafta Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,4\u2019e inmesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Mart dip seviyesi 181,87\u2019ye do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in 184,40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir di\u011fer unsur da Japonya maliye yetkililerinin \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201dna y\u00f6nelik uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yenilemesi; bu durum piyasaya m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalenin dahi JPY\u2019de sert de\u011fer kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da parite \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yor, bunlar\u0131 potansiyel sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131y\u0131z; 185,05\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ilk \u00f6nemli engel konumunda. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir kapan\u0131\u015f ve ard\u0131ndan 186,30 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7gen \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tezimizin ge\u00e7ersiz kalmas\u0131na neden olur. Bu senaryoda, Nisan zirvelerini hedefleyen al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi planlar\u0131z.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k konsolidasyon, ima edilen volatiliteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirdi. Bu durum, her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek uzun straddle gibi stratejiler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u00dc\u00e7gen formasyonunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/JPY 184,90\u2019da kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da k\u0131sa vadede EMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 184,40 deste\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 181,87-180,81 g\u00fcndemde; 186,30 \u00fcst\u00fc ise 187,95\u2019e kap\u0131 a\u00e7ar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49451\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}