EUR\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1535 seviyesine g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ancak s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimin euronun daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni verilerine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik cephede ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130srail\u2019i \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapmamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde uyard\u0131; at\u0131lacak ilave ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 taraf\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 raydan \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019yu aramay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar olaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Beyrut\u2019u vurdu\u011fu ve \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekleyebilir. Para politikas\u0131nda ise euro, daha s\u0131k\u0131 ECB politikas\u0131 beklentilerinden destek buldu. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re mevduat faizinin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir art\u0131\u015f daha gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,1500 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu hareket, daha agresif bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) beklentisiyle destekleniyor. 11 Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar, yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k tan\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %2,8 ile tahminlerin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi; bu da bankan\u0131n harekete ge\u00e7mesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019daki g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesini bekleyenler i\u00e7in, \u015fahin bir ECB mesaj\u0131ndan kaynaklanabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak ad\u0131na EUR\/USD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Mevcut ortam, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n euronun lehine a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerine bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da destekliyor. Bu pozisyonlar, parite i\u00e7in ana belirleyicinin para politikas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yeniden artabilecek gerilim riskini de dengelemek gerekiyor. Burada ya\u015fanacak herhangi bir t\u0131rmanma, g\u00fcvenli limanlara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikleyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iter. Brent petrol, son bir haftada %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da jeopolitik risk priminin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair klasik bir g\u00f6sterge.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi bu senaryo temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor; ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in euroda koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131ndaki t\u0131rmanma gibi geli\u015fmeler, jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini h\u0131zla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabildi\u011fini ve dolarda sert rallilere yol a\u00e7abildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Politika ve jeopolitik aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller z\u0131mni volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltti; bu da her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan uzun straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1535\u2019e g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ECB\u2019nin \u015fahinle\u015fme beklentisi euroyu destekliyor; ancak Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve petrol rallisi dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rabilir. G\u00f6zler Almanya sipari\u015fleri, Sentix verilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}