{"id":49449,"date":"2026-06-08T06:28:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T06:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/zayif-pminin-parasal-gevseme-ve-kontrollu-deger-kaybi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-pboc-yuani-sinirli-olcude-zayiflatti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T06:28:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T06:28:07","slug":"zayif-pminin-parasal-gevseme-ve-kontrollu-deger-kaybi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-pboc-yuani-sinirli-olcude-zayiflatti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-pminin-parasal-gevseme-ve-kontrollu-deger-kaybi-beklentilerini-guclendirmesiyle-pboc-yuani-sinirli-olcude-zayiflatti\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f PMI\u2019nin parasal gev\u015feme ve kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle PBoC yuan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flatt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), gelecek seans i\u00e7in pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcne ait USD\/CNY merkez pariteyi 6,8198 olarak belirledi. Bu seviye, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 6,8157\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek. PBoC\u2019nin ilan etti\u011fi hedefler; d\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131 d\u00e2hil fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek ve yerel finansal piyasalar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirilmesi gibi finansal reformlar\u0131 ilerletmek.<\/p>\n

Merkez bankas\u0131, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 devlet m\u00fclkiyetinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z de\u011fildir. Y\u00f6netim \u00fczerindeki etkinin, ba\u015fkan (guvern\u00f6r) yerine Devlet Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi Komitesi Sekreteri g\u00f6revinde topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilir; Pan Gongsheng her iki g\u00f6revi de y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir. Politika uygulamalar\u0131nda PBoC; yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Bor\u00e7 Verme \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullan\u0131rken, Kredi Ana Faiz Oran\u0131 (LPR) piyasa bor\u00e7lanma ve mevduat faizlerini ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla renminbiyi etkileyen referans (benchmark) faiz oran\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. \u00c7in\u2019de ayr\u0131ca 19 \u00f6zel banka bulunuyor; en b\u00fcy\u00fckleri dijital kredi veren WeBank ve MYbank. 2014\u2019te getirilen kurallar, devlet a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 sistem i\u00e7inde tamamen \u00f6zel sermayeli yerel bankalar\u0131n faaliyet g\u00f6stermesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

PBoC Politika Ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Yuan\u2019daki Y\u00f6netilen De\u011fer Kayb\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yuan\u0131 daha zay\u0131f bir seviyeye y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bug\u00fcnk\u00fc USD\/CNY fixing\u2019i 7,3150\u2019ye ayarland\u0131. Bu, ge\u00e7en haftaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,3120\u2019lik ortalamaya g\u00f6re yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Bu \u201cy\u00f6netilen de\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen endi\u015feleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor; \u00f6zellikle may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son imalat PMI verisinin 49,8 ile zay\u0131f gelmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu veri, fabrika sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 ivme kazanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Devletin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00f6ncelik vermesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) veya Kredi Ana Faiz Oran\u0131 (LPR) gibi ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden ilave parasal gev\u015feme bekliyoruz. Piyasa, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar LPR\u2019de en az bir 10 baz puanl\u0131k indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden fiyatlamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimine y\u00f6nelik sinyal i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamay\u0131 izlemesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Politika Y\u00f6nlendirmesi Etraf\u0131nda \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ve Riskler<\/h3>\n

Fixing\u2019in istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde her g\u00fcn zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 desteklemek amac\u0131yla kontroll\u00fc bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 stratejisine i\u015faret ediyor. PBoC h\u0131z \u00fczerinde kontrol sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/CNY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor; 3 ayl\u0131k kontratlarda \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,2 seviyesinde. Bunu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 7,38-7,40 band\u0131na do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyerek USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 ivmelenmesi h\u00e2linde merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n para birimini daha agresif bi\u00e7imde savunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden sinyaller konusunda dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. 2023 sonlar\u0131nda test edilen ve psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli bir bariyer olan 7,35 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, kamu bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyebilir. Bu da volatilitede s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7ar ve uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferini h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yuan\u2019da yeni hamle: PBoC USD\/CNY fixing\u2019i yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek kontroll\u00fc de\u011fer kayb\u0131na devam ediyor. Zay\u0131f PMI, RRR\/LPR\u2019de ek gev\u015feme beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor; 7,35 \u00fcst\u00fc m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}