Sterlin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden hafif\u00e7e toparlanarak, Asya seans\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan GBP\/USD paritesini yeniden 1,3300\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Hareket, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi sonras\u0131nda USD Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) iki haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolar al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n duraksamas\u0131yla geldi. Veriler, may\u0131sta 85 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 172 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu, nisan verisinin ise 179 bine revize edildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019te sabit kal\u0131rken, Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u2019daki art\u0131\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6\u2019dan %3,4\u2019e yava\u015flayarak tabloyu dengeledi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin duru\u015f beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle dolar i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 destek korunuyor. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re 2026\u2019da bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir meydan okuman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyasi belirsizlik de GBP alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken, Orta Do\u011fu riskleri Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n, Ramat David hava \u00fcss\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik \u00fc\u00e7 dalga balistik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019ya \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmamas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; Washington ile Tahran n\u00fckleer program ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ana e\u011filim g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sterlin\u2019deki mevcut s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir duraklama olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu durum, GBP\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in potansiyel bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Dolar\u0131 destekleyen temel dinamikler, bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramaya k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentisi yaln\u0131zca 85 bin iken 172 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren son ABD istihdam raporu, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin %3,5 gelmesiyle de destekleniyor; bu seviye, merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k %85 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu unsurun dolara sermaye giri\u015fini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise Sterlin, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011fi etraf\u0131ndaki siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 2022\u2019deki \u201cmini b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d krizindeki piyasa \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131na bakmak bile, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta siyasi belirsizli\u011fin para birimini ne kadar sert cezaland\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, Sterlin\u2019deki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine ve sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftiriyor: Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,2 ile zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Fed\u2019in agresif duru\u015funa yeti\u015fmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Proaktif bir Fed ile temkinli bir BoE kombinasyonu, GBP\/USD kurunda zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u00e7in klasik bir zemine i\u015faret ediyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimler de dolar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman olarak daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, d\u00fc\u015fen GBP\/USD\u2019den ve potansiyel olarak artan volatiliteden faydalanan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini, azami riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlayarak ifade etmenin ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yolu olarak put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Alternatif olarak, gelir yaratmak isteyenler i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir sonraki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket \u00f6ncesinde yatay bant hareketinden faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD NFP sonras\u0131 dolardaki gev\u015femeyle 1,33 ortas\u0131na toparland\u0131; ancak Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi, jeopolitik-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Starmer belirsizli\u011fi GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49448\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}