WTI, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (bullish gap) ile a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi; ancak pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90,50 dolar seviyesinde pozitif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e do\u011fru birden fazla f\u00fcze salvosu g\u00f6ndermesinin ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu hamle, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 sarsarken, mevcut ate\u015fkese ra\u011fmen \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi; ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ham petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 gecikiyor. \u0130srail ordusu, gelen t\u00fcm f\u00fczelerin engellendi\u011fini ve can kayb\u0131 bildirilmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130srail\u2019in Beyrut\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi ve Ba\u015fbakan Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019ya \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 misillemeden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131da bulunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ayr\u0131ca Tahran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakerelere geri d\u00f6nmesini istedi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n neredeyse kapanmas\u0131, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131 ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri al\u0131nmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, OPEC+ pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc temmuz ay\u0131 \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varil art\u0131rma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131; ancak \u00fcyeler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki sevkiyat aksamas\u0131 nedeniyle mevcut hedefleri kar\u015f\u0131lamakta zorlan\u0131yor ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kapasitesi altyap\u0131ya y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, piyasada temel dinamiklerden ziyade \u015fiddetli jeopolitik riskin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019da yeniden ba\u015flayan \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini enerji fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tek ve en kritik fakt\u00f6r h\u00e2line getiriyor. Askeri hareketlilik s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e bu durum fiyatlar \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n neredeyse kapanmas\u0131, kritik bir arz \u015foku niteli\u011finde; zira tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2htan ge\u00e7iyor ve bu, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Benzer olaylar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat hareketleri yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar Brent petrol\u00fcn tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirgin g\u00fcnl\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011fa ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair her haberde daha sert fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
OPEC+\u2019\u0131n temmuz kotalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma karar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ikinci planda b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 bir bo\u011faz noktas\u0131 (chokepoint) olmaya devam ederken bu duyuru daha \u00e7ok sembolik kal\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgedeki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticiler, mevcut \u00fcretimlerinin dahi piyasaya fiziksel olarak ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir kota art\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitiriyor. Rusya\u2019daki \u00fcretim zorluklar\u0131 da grubun k\u00fcresel piyasaya kayda de\u011fer ek arz sunma kapasitesini daha da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek gerilim ve arz riskleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejilerin uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI veya Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) \u00fczerinde 50 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, klasik stok verilerinden ziyade tamamen jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerinde olacak. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkese dair i\u015faretler veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyidi, uzun pozisyonlarda agresif k\u00e2r realizasyonu i\u00e7in sinyal niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yeni bir askeri t\u0131rmanma y\u00fckseli\u015f tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir; bu da bu pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131n veya art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru strateji olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon: WTI 90,5 dolarda pozitif. \u0130ran-\u0130srail gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de geciken ak\u0131\u015flar arz \u015foku fiyatl\u0131yor. OPEC+ kota art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6lgede; oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131yor, risk primi b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49447\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}