Japonya ekonomisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek %0,3\u2019l\u00fck piyasa beklentisini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha sa\u011flam bir k\u0131sa vadeli momentumuna i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Beklentilere g\u00f6re 0,2 puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz, i\u00e7 talebe ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmeleri ve politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyebilir. Piyasalar, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin gelecek \u00e7eyrekte s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak faaliyet ve enflasyon verilerini izleyecek.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki GSYH verisi, Japonya ekonomisinin fiyatlanandan daha fazla ivmeye sahip oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, altta yatan ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu olumlu s\u00fcrpriz, k\u0131sa vadede Japon yeni i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu verinin, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme s\u00fcrecini h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. BoJ temkinli bir duru\u015f sergiledi; ancak enflasyonun son d\u00f6nemde %2,7 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve \u015fimdi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseltti. Olas\u0131 bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimi \u015fu an temel oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz ve USD\/JPY paritesinde 150 seviyesinin alt\u0131na bir hareketi hedefliyoruz. Yen son iki y\u0131lda dikkate de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve bu veri bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabilir. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek bir politika s\u00fcrprizi ihtimali artm\u0131\u015fken, ima edilen volatilitenin (implied volatility) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha karma\u015f\u0131k. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomi pozitif olsa da h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazanan bir yen, Nikkei 225\u2019in \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Tarihsel olarak yendeki %1\u2019lik de\u011ferlenme, ihracat\u00e7\u0131larda hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r\u0131 (EPS) benzer oranda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, yerel ekonomiden daha fazla fayda sa\u011flayan yurt i\u00e7i a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015firketleri daha fazla bar\u0131nd\u0131ran TOPIX endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Nikkei 225 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alabiliriz. Bu ikili i\u015flem (pair trade) stratejisi, i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden faydalan\u0131rken ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir BoJ\u2019u fiyatlamas\u0131yla Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) getirilerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f bekliyoruz. Son derece yatay olan getiri e\u011frisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, e\u011frinin dikle\u015fmesi (steepening) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ayda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz b\u00fcy\u00fcme piyasalar\u0131 sallad\u0131: Japonya ilk \u00e7eyrekte %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. BoJ\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken yen destek bulabilir; JGB getirileri y\u00fckselebilir, hisse taraf\u0131nda ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49446\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}