AUD\/USD, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin ABD dolar\u0131na talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7035 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130ran hafta sonu \u0130srail\u2019in kuzeyine birden fazla dalga halinde f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlerken, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019dan misilleme yapmamas\u0131n\u0131 isteyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, AUD i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f belirleyiciler aras\u0131nda \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131 ve Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi bulunsa da, dolar lehineydi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri de hareketi destekledi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam May\u0131s\u2019ta 172 bin artt\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f kaydedildi; \u00f6nceki ay verisi 115 binden 179 bine revize edilirken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Avustralya\u2019da ise Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin duru\u015fu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda nakit faizi %4,35\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir miktar denge unsuru sa\u011flad\u0131; bankan\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %2\u20133 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. Demir cevheri, 2021\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar de\u011ferle Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortam\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli limana klasik ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikleyerek Greenback gibi g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), jeopolitik riskin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fckseli\u015f sergiledi ve bu kal\u0131b\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda da s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD istihdam raporu \u201c\u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u201d olmasa da, Fed\u2019in beklemede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak kadar sa\u011flam. 172 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ekonominin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki Fed g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyerek, piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini \u00f6teler nitelikte. Bu hafta itibar\u0131yla Fed fon vadeli kontratlar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da USD i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya taraf\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu \u00f6nemli bir destek unsuru olsa da, etkisi g\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisi, enflasyonun %3,6 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stererek RBA\u2019n\u0131n sert s\u00f6ylemini gerek\u00e7elendiriyor. Bununla birlikte, Aussie dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar art\u0131yor ve zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
AUD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kayda de\u011fer d\u0131\u015f riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle de en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son veriler, imalat PMI g\u00f6stergelerinin 50 puan\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ederek zay\u0131f geni\u015flemeye ve Avustralya emtialar\u0131na talep \u00fczerinde bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Buna demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 105 dolara gerilemesi de eklenince, Aussie i\u00e7in kritik bir destek aya\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, AUD\/USD paritesi i\u00e7in ay\u0131 e\u011filimine i\u015faret ediyor. Olas\u0131 ek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak ad\u0131na, 0,7000 psikolojik seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada 0,6900 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Maliyet ve riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri kurmak da etkili bir strateji olabilir. Sat\u0131n al\u0131nan put\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satarak ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini azaltabiliriz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin beklenmedik \u015fekilde azalmas\u0131 halinde AUD\/USD\u2019de sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ve rahatlama rallisi ya\u015fanabilecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken AUD\/USD 0,7035\u2019te bask\u0131da. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 Fed indirimini \u00f6telerken; \u00c7in zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve demir cevheri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc AUD\u2019u s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49444","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49444","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49444"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49444\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}