Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail hedeflerine f\u00fcze salvosu g\u00f6ndermesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019ya misilleme yapmamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyece\u011fini belirtti. F\u0131rlatmalar, \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf\u2019\u0131n X\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin \u201cdeniz ablukas\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019a ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmalar\u0131n ihlali\u201d ile ate\u015fkesi bozdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u0130srail ordusu, nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen f\u00fcze dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nledi\u011fini bildirdi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n gelece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrerken pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Beyrut\u2019u vurdu\u011fu belirtildi. CNN, Trump\u2019\u0131n ayr\u0131ca Netanyahu\u2019nun \u0130ran\u2019la bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmekten \u201cba\u015fka se\u00e7ene\u011fi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi\u011fini ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme hedefini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasalar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verdi. Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,83 y\u00fckselerek 90,85 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. WTI, Cushing teslim noktas\u0131 baz al\u0131narak fiyatlanan, hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck s\u00fclf\u00fcrl\u00fc bir ABD ham petrol\u00fc olup Brent ve Dubai ile birlikte yayg\u0131n bir referans olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik kesintiler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC \u00fcretim politikas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dolar \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi nedeniyle ABD dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenir. Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (API) ve Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) haftal\u0131k stok verileri fiyatlar\u0131 oynatabilir; sonu\u00e7lar zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirinin %1\u2019i i\u00e7inde seyreder ve EIA serisi daha g\u00fcvenilir kabul edilir. OPEC\u2019in 12 \u00fcyesi bulunur ve y\u0131lda iki kez toplan\u0131r; OPEC+ ise OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 10 \u00fclkeyi de kapsar.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma haberlerinin ilk etkisiyle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak ABD\u2019nin tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve ilave kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu da \u015fimdilik temellerden ziyade man\u015fetlerin fiyatlama \u00fczerinde belirleyici oldu\u011fu, iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir piyasa olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik gerilim, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta sert bir art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) son seansta %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artarak 42,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve 2024 sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bunun opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; ancak prim satmak isteyenler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar sunuyor.<\/p>\n
WTI \u00fczerindeki mevcut jeopolitik risk priminin (varil ba\u015f\u0131na 5-7 dolar olarak tahmin ediyoruz) diplomatik giri\u015fimlerin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde h\u0131zla eriyebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden temel dinamiklere kayacakt\u0131r. EIA\u2019n\u0131n son verileri, ge\u00e7en hafta 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz bir stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu \u00f6ncesinde talebin zay\u0131fl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu paterni daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 fiyatlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. Burada da ilave askeri ad\u0131m gelmezse benzer bir h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fczeltme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyim, ilk ralliyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde kovalamaya kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, olas\u0131 bir fiyat tavan\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak veya ay\u0131 (bear) call spread kurmak makul olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131k\u00e7a fiyatlar\u0131n yatayla\u015fmas\u0131 ya da gerilemesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
OPEC+\u2019\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; bir sonraki toplant\u0131 1 Temmuz\u2019da planlan\u0131yor. \u00d6nemli \u00fcyelerden, piyasalar\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in at\u0131l kapasitenin kullan\u0131labilece\u011fine dair gelebilecek mesajlar fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Hedefleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman piyasa istikrar\u0131d\u0131r; 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ortado\u011fu\u2019da f\u00fcze gerilimi petrol\u00fc 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: Trump \u0130srail\u2019e misilleme frenine bast\u0131r\u0131yor. OVX 42,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; risk primi 5-7 dolar. Diplomasiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fczeltme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49443","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49443"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49443\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}