Filipinler\u2019de man\u015fet enflasyon may\u0131sta geriledi ancak Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalarak k\u0131sa vadeli risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131na neden oldu. UOB, BSP\u2019nin %6,3\u2019l\u00fck tahminine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 2026 y\u0131l geneli enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc %7,5\u2019te koruyor; ba\u011flam a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2025 enflasyonu %1,7 olarak belirtiliyor. Daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon verisi ve 1\u00c726\u2019daki zay\u0131f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 18 Haziran\u2019daki Para Kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olas\u0131 politika hamlesinin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
UOB\u2019nin baz senaryosu, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re 18 Haziran\u2019da ters repo (RRP) faizinde 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla oran %4,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak. Ard\u0131ndan 3\u00c726\u2019da ilave 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %5,00\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi ve 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na do\u011fru enflasyon beklentilerini hedefe yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek amac\u0131yla faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n, gerekti\u011finde \u00f6zellikle g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmaya y\u00f6nelik hedefli mali ad\u0131mlarla da desteklenmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu durum Filipin Pesosu\u2019na (PHP) da destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
May\u0131sta enflasyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde %6,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2-4 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, ilk \u00e7eyrekte GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %5,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen BSP \u00fczerindeki harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. G\u0131da ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma maliyetlerindeki y\u00fcksek seyrin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskler, enflasyonun sorun olmaya devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, BSP\u2019nin 18 Haziran\u2019da \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na giderek politika faizini %4,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Daha agresif bir art\u0131\u015f yerine bu kademeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerine verilen bir yan\u0131t niteli\u011finde. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f daha fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da politika faizini %5,00 ile zirveye ta\u015f\u0131yacak.<\/p>\n
Bu politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fimdilik faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi bir ortamda Filipin Pesosu\u2019na destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, pesoda pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bunun, kurun savunulmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayarak USD\/PHP paritesini mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131k 58,75 seviyelerinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc peso ve daha y\u00fcksek yerel faizlerden fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere odaklan\u0131yoruz. Buna, artan faizlerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in sabit faiz alma (receive-fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde faiz swaplar\u0131na girmek veya \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli PHP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak da dahil. Bu pozisyonlar, BSP\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar beklenen politika patikas\u0131yla uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin riskler y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusunda temkinliyiz. Enflasyonda s\u00fcrpriz veriler veya BSP\u2019den daha \u015fahin bir ton, kurda sert hareketlere neden olabilir. 18 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Filipinler\u2019de enflasyon may\u0131sta %6,1\u2019e inse de hedef \u00fcst\u00fcnde: UOB, BSP\u2019nin 18 Haziran\u2019da 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla faizi %4,75\u2019e, 3\u00c726\u2019da %5,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; peso desteklenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49439"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49439\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}