Standard Chartered, 18 Haziran\u2019daki planl\u0131 toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 50 baz puanl\u0131k takvim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 baz senaryosundan \u00e7\u0131kararak Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019\u0131n (BSP) beklenen politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 revize etti. Buna ra\u011fmen banka, enflasyon risklerinin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle Haziran\u2019da 50 baz puan, A\u011fustos\u2019ta ise ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Filipin pesosundaki (PHP) devam eden de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n ithal enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Politika gev\u015femesi ise 2027\u2019nin 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finden \u00f6nce beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n
Takvim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 hamlenin baz senaryodan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131yla banka, 2026 sonu politika faizi tahminini \u00f6nceki %5,75 seviyesinden %5,25\u2019e indirdi. Enflasyonun so\u011fumas\u0131yla birlikte 2027\u2019nin 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n geri al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, politika faizinin 2027 sonunda %4,50\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
18 Haziran\u2019daki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde takvim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131k beklemiyoruz. Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tamamen bu planl\u0131 toplant\u0131da 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa pozisyon almaya kayd\u0131. Bu revizyon, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fmakla birlikte ortadan kalkmayan enflasyon risklerine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son enflasyon verisi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: May\u0131s enflasyonu bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla h\u0131zlanarak %3,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n gere\u011fini yerine getirmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir seyir i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; bunu a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden, sabit faiz \u00f6deyen taraf olarak yap\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Pesodaki s\u00fcregelen de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da stratejimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; kur \u015fu anda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 58,75 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle kritik emtialarda ithal enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak merkez bankas\u0131na faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Beklenen art\u0131\u015f, kurda bir taban olu\u015fturmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gerekli bir ad\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n otomatik olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pesoya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarken temkinli olmak gerekiyor. 2022\u2019de, yerel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n etkisiyle pesonun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu nedenle, do\u011frudan bir ralliye oynamaktan ziyade, daha fazla peso oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n \u00f6tesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, A\u011fustos\u2019ta ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yoruz. En az 2027\u2019nin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar herhangi bir politika gev\u015femesi veya faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Bu uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte daha y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na pozisyon alman\u0131n gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Standard Chartered\u2019dan BSP patikas\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz revizyon: Takvim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 50 bp rafa kalkt\u0131; 18 Haziran\u2019da 50 bp, A\u011fustos\u2019ta 25 bp bekleniyor. Peso zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ithal enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor; gev\u015feme 2027 2\u00c7 sonras\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49437\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}