ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Ticaret Komisyonu (CFTC) verilerine g\u00f6re, ticari olmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n petrolde ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 net uzun (net long) pozisyonlar 161 bin seviyesindeki \u00f6nceki okumadan 155,9 bine geriledi. Bu hareket, son raporlama d\u00f6neminde spek\u00fclatif hesaplar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Gerileme, pozisyonlanman\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki haftaya k\u0131yasla 5,1 bin kontrat d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. A\u00e7\u0131klama, CFTC\u2019nin haftal\u0131k taahh\u00fct (commitments) verileriyle izlenen petrol vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131ndaki duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa dair bir anl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki net uzun pozisyonlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe dikkat \u00e7ekiyoruz; bu durum, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik inanc\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor ve son fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn devam edecek fazla alan\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bunu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kendi y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonumuzu azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin geri \u00e7ekilmesi, zay\u0131flayan talep sinyalleriyle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. May\u0131s 2026 tarihli son raporlar, k\u00fcresel elektrikli ara\u00e7 (EV) sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte yeni otomobil pazar\u0131n\u0131n %25\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu; bunun 2024\u2019teki yaln\u0131zca %18 seviyesinden belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu e\u011filim, benzin i\u00e7in uzun vadeli talep tahminlerini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini giderek zorla\u015ft\u0131ran kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bask\u0131 unsuruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda ise ABD ham petrol \u00fcretimi inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; son veriler, \u00fcretimin rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,8 milyon varil civar\u0131nda korundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz, fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir tavan olu\u015fturmaya devam ederek di\u011fer k\u00fcresel \u00fcreticilerden gelebilecek \u00fcretim kesintilerinin etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu dinamik, anlaml\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen bir arz \u015foku olmadan WTI\u2019\u0131n 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli yapmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin fiyat\u0131n yatay ya da y\u00fckseli\u015f halinde oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi (2023 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi) \u00e7o\u011fu zaman konsolidasyon ya da geri \u00e7ekilme d\u00f6neminin habercisi olabiliyor. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan ziyade bant i\u00e7inde fiyat hareketine pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak prim toplamak ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmak temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde ralli bitebilir mi? CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun pozisyonu 161 binden 155,9 bine indi: y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u00f6n\u00fcyor. EV trendi talebi a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131rken, ABD \u00fcretimi 13,8 mb\/g\u00fcn fiyatlara tavan koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}