RBA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michele Bullock, bir oturumda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, kurulun enflasyonu yeniden hedefe y\u00f6nlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bu y\u0131l politika faizini 75 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyon 2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda hedef bant i\u00e7ine girdi ancak 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetleri art\u0131rmas\u0131yla yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Bullock ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyona ek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikan\u0131n konut piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda gev\u015fetti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bullock, man\u015fet enflasyonun haziran \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak zirve yapabilece\u011fini, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ise 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 mal ticareti dengesi nisan ay\u0131nda iyile\u015fti; marttaki 1,024 milyar Avustralya dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla 1,791 milyar Avustralya dolar\u0131 fazla verdi. Haberde, makalenin bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 sert duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, daha y\u00fcksek faizlere y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyonun 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar hedefe d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi ifadesi, uzun bir s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Avustralya politika faizinin daha da y\u00fckselece\u011fi bir senaryoya g\u00f6re pozisyon almak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Veriler de bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesi inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %4,1 seviyesinde geldi; may\u0131s istihdam raporu ise i\u015fsizli\u011fin %3,9\u2019da sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek, bahsi ge\u00e7en s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu rakamlar, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermesi i\u00e7in fazla gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar da art\u0131yor ve bu durum daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir politika tepkisi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Devam eden Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutarken, ithal enflasyon merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam edecek. Bu tablo, ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Artan faiz beklentileri ile nisan ay\u0131nda 1,79 milyar Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi s\u00fcrpriz derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, \u00f6zellikle daha g\u00fcvercin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda AUD i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu olu\u015fturuyor. Bu beklenen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye maruz kalmak i\u00e7in AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda getiri e\u011frisinin daha agresif RBA ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayacak \u015fekilde tepki vermesi muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Bu da, getiriler y\u00fckselirken fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle Avustralya 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc f\u0131rsatlara i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan politikan\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda so\u011futtu\u011fu belirtilen konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da izlemek gerekiyor. RBA\u2019n\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 enflasyon olsa da, gayrimenkulde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde art\u0131r\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmaya zorlayabilir. Bu, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif \u015fahin bir pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk unsurunu olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA \u015fahinle\u015fiyor: Bullock, 75 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131ma ra\u011fmen enflasyonun 2027 ortas\u0131na dek hedef \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Petrol\/Orta Do\u011fu riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; AUD destekli, tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131, konut so\u011fuyor. Trade fazlas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49431"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49431\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}