ING, Brezilya realinin ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesinin giderek daha fazla faizlerdeki yeniden fiyatlamayla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar zemininin ve yurti\u00e7indeki siyasi ile ticari risklerin BRL \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Banka, Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lula\u2019n\u0131n onay oranlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felere, Flavio Bolsonaro\u2019yu i\u00e7eren tart\u0131\u015fmalara ve %25 ABD tarifelerinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesi riskine i\u015faret ediyor ve USD\/BRL\u2019nin 5,14\u2019e do\u011fru d\u00fczeltme yapabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Notta ayr\u0131ca, yerel k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sonundan bu yana sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da kurun yurti\u00e7i faiz hareketlerini yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasalar Banco Central do Brasil\u2019in politika faizini %15,00 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 seviyesinden %12,50\u2019ye indirimle fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fti ve %14,50 politika faizinden bir sonraki ad\u0131m art\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ING, ABD tahvili getirileri ve dolarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla, BRL deste\u011fini de y\u00fcksek getirisi ve Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumuna ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ortam\u0131n\u0131n Brezilya reali i\u00e7in olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politika faizini %5,25-%5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutarken, USD\/BRL paritesinde bir d\u00fczeltme i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar olgunla\u015f\u0131yor. Kurun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 5,14 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde piyasa, kendi faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekli\u011fine h\u0131zla uyum sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Piyasa y\u0131la faiz indirimleri beklentisiyle ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olsa da, son d\u00f6nemde yeniden %5,8\u2019e t\u0131rmanan kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Art\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, mevcut %14,50 politika faizinden bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, realde s\u00fcregelen ancak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 5,10 veya 5,14\u2019e yakla\u015fan USD\/BRL\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, beklenen bu hareketi do\u011frudan yakalayabilir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda uzun real pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131yanlar ise bu olas\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, kurda sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f beklemiyoruz. Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek faizleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte en cazip carry trade\u2019lerden birini sunuyor ve bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir te\u015fvik sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131yla net enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumumuz da para birimi i\u00e7in temel bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu altta yatan destek, gelir \u00fcretmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck stratejiler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. USD\/BRL\u2019de 5,00 psikolojik seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda \u201czarar-d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak uygulanabilir bir hamle olabilir. Bu strateji, prim toplamaya olanak tan\u0131rken, realin y\u00fcksek getirisinin daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyece\u011fi inanc\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ING\u2019e g\u00f6re BRL\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilme faizlerde yeniden fiyatlamayla uyumlu: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, Lula siyaseti, Bolsonaro tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve %25 tarife riski bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; USD\/BRL 5,14\u2019e d\u00fczeltme potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49430\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}