Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce 4.425 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.490 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki seans zirvelerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Metal haftal\u0131k bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 ekside kalsa da, hareket; \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla geldi. Bununla birlikte anla\u015fma, Hizbullah\u2019tan gelecek teyidi bekliyor. Mutabakat, olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki bir engelin gev\u015fetilmesi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelenirken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Dolar hafif geri \u00e7ekildi; ancak s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan tuttu. ABD makro verileri ise Dolar\u2019a bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131: ADP, May\u0131s\u2019ta net istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu bildirirken, ISM Hizmetler PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aktiviteye ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu da, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n, 4.425 dolar seviyesindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamadan destek buldu ve 4.500 dolar \u00fczerinde bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201cbullish engulfing\u201d formasyonunu teyit edecektir. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131f seyretti; RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede, bu da y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ivme kazanmakta zorlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 4.500 dolar zirvesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, oda\u011f\u0131 4.590 dolara (19 May\u0131s ve 29 May\u0131s zirveleri) ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski iki ayl\u0131k dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 4.515 dolar civar\u0131na yeniden \u00e7evirecektir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 kilit tutucu konumunu koruyor; 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton ek al\u0131m yapt\u0131lar. Alt\u0131n\u0131n Dolar ve ABD tahvilleriyle ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ili\u015fkisi de fiyatlamay\u0131 \u015fekillendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n, teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli bir destek olan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131ndan 4.425 dolar civar\u0131nda tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareket, olas\u0131 bir ate\u015fkese ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla da destekleniyor. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomik verilerinin ciddi bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturmas\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada prim toplamak i\u00e7in opsiyon satman\u0131n makul bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasadaki belirsizlik, muhtemelen ima edilen volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltti; bu da 4.425 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece alt\u0131n son dip seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece getiri elde edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Fiyatta, sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan temel bir taban oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Merkez bankalar\u0131 agresif al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve yaln\u0131zca bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel rezervlere yakla\u015f\u0131k 290 ton ekledi. Bu istikrarl\u0131 kurumsal talep, de\u011ferli metal i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ana engel, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisi ve Fed olmaya devam ediyor. En son istihdam raporu, ekonominin 250 binin \u00fczerinde yeni istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde masada tutuyor. Daha y\u00fcksek faizler, getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik izledi\u011fimiz kritik m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 4.500 dolar seviyesi. Bo\u011falar bu fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde net bir kapan\u0131\u015f sa\u011flayamazsa, bunu zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak de\u011ferlendirir; put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri (bear call spreads) kurmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Bu, 4.425 dolardaki deste\u011fin yeniden test edilmesini hedefleyen taktiksel bir hamle olur.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hisse senetleriyle ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti\u011finden, borsada yeni zirveler g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi sermayeyi metalden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Y\u00f6n\u00fcnden emin olmadan belirgin bir fiyat hareketi bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in straddle sat\u0131n almak, k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanman\u0131n etkili bir yolu olabilir. Bu strateji, hareketin yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat de\u011fi\u015fiminden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n, 4.425\u2019te 200G HO\u2019dan destekle 4.490\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131: ate\u015fkes haberi Dolar\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri\/Fed faiz riski bask\u0131l\u0131yor. 4.500 \u00fczeri kapan\u0131\u015f 4.590\u2019\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49428"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49428\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}