Rupi, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nelik yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00f6nceki seansta g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; USD\/INR 95,72 civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Politika ad\u0131m\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 giri\u015fleri desteklemeyi hedefliyor; hisse taraf\u0131nda ise Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda olup 5.616,56 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve Haziran\u2019da \u015fimdiye kadarki \u00fc\u00e7 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn tamam\u0131nda yabanc\u0131lar net sat\u0131c\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah pe\u015finde ko\u015fmama konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ayetullah\u2019\u0131n\u0131n\u2014Y\u00fcce Lider M\u00fccteba Hamaney olarak an\u0131larak\u2014yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik ve enerji g\u00fcndemi \u00f6n planda kalmaya devam etti; Trump ayr\u0131ca bu hafta kadar erken bir tarihte H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7abilecek olas\u0131 bir MoU\u2019dan bahsederken, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran deniz limanlar\u0131na uygulayabilece\u011fi bir ablukas\u0131n\u0131n 7 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131\u2019na (Labour Day) kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Hindistan\u2019da \u00f6\u011fleden sonra i\u015flemlerinde MCX Ham Petrol 9.120 civar\u0131nda %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 10 g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesi olan 9.290 seviyesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc RBI karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; politika faizinin (repo) %5,25\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ABD May\u0131s tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi de Fed i\u00e7in kritik bir girdi olarak izleniyor. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, RSI\u2019\u0131n 54,8 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ortamda 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,47\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutunurken, 96,65 ve 97,09 diren\u00e7leri ile 95,00 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 94,00 destekleri takip ediliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesinin 95,72 civar\u0131nda yatay kalmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde beklemeye ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hindistan h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisini kald\u0131rma karar\u0131, yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7ekmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir ad\u0131m. Bununla birlikte, Yabanc\u0131 Portf\u00f6y Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (FPI) belirgin net sat\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve son \u00e7eyrekte Hindistan hisselerinden 3,5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; yeni politikan\u0131n hedefi bu e\u011filimi tersine \u00e7evirmek.<\/p>\n
FII kaynakl\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, Rupinin son d\u00f6nemdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicilerinden biri oldu. National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla geli\u015fen piyasalardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Vergi muafiyeti olumlu bir ad\u0131m olsa da, tek ba\u015f\u0131na bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir alg\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile ilgili jeopolitik tablo, Rupi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmaya devam ediyor. Net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olarak Hindistan\u2019da cari a\u00e7\u0131k ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na olduk\u00e7a duyarl\u0131; tarihsel olarak petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki varil ba\u015f\u0131na her 10 dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4\u2019\u00fc kadar b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinde fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutacak bir sonu\u00e7suzluk, INR\u2019de olas\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne giderken, piyasaya belirgin oynakl\u0131k getirmesi muhtemel iki ana olay riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak enflasyona ili\u015fkin duru\u015fta olas\u0131 bir \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kayma i\u00e7in y\u00f6nlendirme ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar izlenecek. Beklenenden daha agresif bir ton, para birimine ge\u00e7ici destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna paralel olarak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir belirleyici olacak. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in mevcut politikay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir ve Rupi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Benzer bir dinamik, 2024 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle t\u00fcm geli\u015fen piyasa para birimlerini etkilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara volatilitede bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor. Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren uzun straddle gibi t\u00fcrev stratejiler etkili olabilir. Bu pozisyon, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket yapmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle belirtilen teknik seviyeler izleniyor. 96,65 direncinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA deste\u011fi olan 95,47\u2019nin alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131 ise daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bir sonraki y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerinin bu seviyeler etraf\u0131nda konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 tavsiye ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rupi, tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda vergi muafiyetine ra\u011fmen 95,72\u2019de yatay: FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol riski bask\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Cuma RBI ve ABD NFP\u2019de; 96,65\/95,47 seviyeleri kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49427"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49427\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}