Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flarda s\u00fcren aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n spot (yak\u0131n vadeli) arz ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Piyasa ayr\u0131ca ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereleri izlerken, b\u00f6lgesel sevkiyatlarda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yeniden ba\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe do\u011fru fiyatlar\u0131 ilave y\u00fckseli\u015flere a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor; zira ak\u0131\u015flarda herhangi bir toparlanman\u0131n yava\u015f ve kademeli olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de, haftal\u0131k EIA verileri ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 7,97 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son bir bu\u00e7uk aydaki k\u00fcm\u00fclatif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 32 milyon varile ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Mevsimsel olarak rafineri faaliyetleri stoklar\u0131 genellikle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; ancak son d\u00f6nemdeki h\u0131z ola\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Stratejik petrol rezervinden (SPR) yap\u0131lan sal\u0131mlar da dahil edildi\u011finde, toplam ham petrol stoklar\u0131 hafta i\u00e7inde 15,97 milyon varil geriledi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki devam eden aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) taraf\u0131ndan payla\u015f\u0131lan son raporlar, tanker trafi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik tehditlerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ederek enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede normale d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentileri ciddi bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu jeopolitik belirsizlik, piyasada arz taraf\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri de bu iyimser (bullish) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor ve ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 8,2 milyon varillik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu rakam, haziran\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131 i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn neredeyse iki kat\u0131; bu da talebin arz\u0131 ola\u011fandan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Stratejik rezerv sal\u0131mlar\u0131yla birlikte toplam stok azalmas\u0131 daha da belirginle\u015ferek olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 tamponu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu fakt\u00f6rler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcnde a\u011fustos ve eyl\u00fcl vadeli, \u00f6zellikle 100-105 dolar band\u0131 civar\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na (strike) sahip al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almak, olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan do\u011frudan faydalanman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Piyasa s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma fiyatlar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k da art\u0131yor; CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 38\u2019e y\u00fckselerek opsiyonlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu daha y\u00fcksek maliyetleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, potansiyel kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 primini belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) kullanabilir. Bu strateji, belirsiz bir ortamda riski tan\u0131mlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131lmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tablo, 2019 sonlar\u0131nda Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 arz \u015fokunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn, zaten daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir piyasada benzer bir olay \u00e7ok daha dramatik bir etki yaratabilir. \u0130stikrar\u0131 yeniden tesis edecek herhangi bir anla\u015fman\u0131n petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda yava\u015f ve kademeli bir toparlanmayla sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131 muhtemel; bu da yaz boyunca stoklar\u0131n erimeye devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar ve ABD stoklar\u0131nda 8 milyon varillik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 itiyor. Jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken Q3\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama kap\u0131da; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 100-105$ Brent call\/bull spread ile pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}