Kanada dolar\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti ancak \u0130srail\u2013L\u00fcbnan anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f plan\u0131nda ilerleme umutlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri ald\u0131. USD\/CAD 1,3925 ile sekiz haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra gerileyerek 1,3900 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; parite haftal\u0131k bazda ise %0,8 art\u0131da kald\u0131. L\u00fcbnan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Joseph Aoun, ate\u015fkesin uygulanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u0130srail ile var\u0131lan anla\u015fmaya taraflardan gelecek yan\u0131tlar\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler dolar\u0131 destekledi: ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi May\u0131s\u2019ta net i\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken, ISM Hizmet PMI g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aktiviteyle birlikte y\u00fcksek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasalar \u015fimdi ABD haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n 85 bin artmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Statistics Canada\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s istihdam verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor; Nisan\u2019daki 17,7 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan net istihdam\u0131n 10 bin artaca\u011f\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %6,9\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) enflasyonu %1\u2013%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hedefliyor ve niceliksel geni\u015fleme ya da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da kullanabiliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi, CAD i\u00e7in temel belirleyiciler olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesini 1,3910 civar\u0131nda seyrederken yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131, ekonomide yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ederek d\u00fcn politika faizini 25 baz puan indirerek %4,5\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Bu ad\u0131m, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) duru\u015fuyla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar arg\u00fcman\u0131 sa\u011flam kalmaya devam ediyor. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi %2,8 ile Fed hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu da \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131, Kanada dolar\u0131na k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Loonie \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur da WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel talep endi\u015feleriyle son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi. Petrol, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca ihra\u00e7 kalemlerinden biri oldu\u011fundan, fiyatlardaki bu zay\u0131flama para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir destek aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, Kanada i\u00e7in ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli oda\u011f\u0131, yar\u0131n iki \u00fclkeden gelecek ve birbirine kar\u015f\u0131t sinyaller \u00fcretmesi beklenen istihdam raporlar\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Mevcut konsens\u00fcs, ABD\u2019nin May\u0131s\u2019ta 180 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydedece\u011fini; Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, 20 binlik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n teyidi, USD\/CAD\u2019i muhtemelen daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin s\u00fcrmesine oynayan pozisyonlarda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 1,4000 psikolojik seviyesine ve \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir hamleden faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu gibi t\u00fcrev stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir. ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6reli \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, 2015-2016 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki benzer bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,2500\u2019den 1,4500\u2019nin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarih birebir tekerr\u00fcr etmese de, bu t\u00fcr trendlerin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hale gelebilece\u011fine dair faydal\u0131 bir \u015fablon sunuyor. Tezimizi do\u011frulamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Loonie geri \u00e7ekildi ama toparland\u0131: USD\/CAD 1,3925\u2019ten 1,3900 \u00fcst\u00fcne indi. BoC faiz indirirken Fed \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201dte \u0131srarc\u0131; zay\u0131f petrol ve istihdam verileri 1,40 riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}