\u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH), ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7eyreklik bazda %12,1 gerileyerek piyasadaki %2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomistlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha sert bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
Man\u015fet kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmada, uzla\u015f\u0131 tahmine (konsens\u00fcs) k\u0131yasla sapma b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgindi; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00fcretim, beklenenden 10,1 y\u00fczde puan daha fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Veriler, \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme profilinin oynak kalmaya devam etti\u011fine dair kan\u0131tlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, GSYH\u2019de d\u00f6nemden d\u00f6neme b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eyreklik GSYH\u2019deki -%12,1\u2019lik ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, -%2\u2019lik tahminden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sapma ve ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Biz bunu \u0130rlanda ekonomisinin \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015feklinde de\u011fil, \u00e7okuluslu \u015firketlerin varl\u0131k kayd\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7arp\u0131tma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, \u0130rlanda verilerinin ortak bir \u00f6zelli\u011fi. As\u0131l kritik olan, \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 man\u015fetin \u00f6tesine bak\u0131p ger\u00e7ek temel faaliyete odaklanmak.<\/p>\n
Daha net bir tablo i\u00e7in, ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %0,9 gerileyen \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n De\u011fi\u015ftirilmi\u015f Yurti\u00e7i Talep (Modified Domestic Demand – MDD) g\u00f6stergesine bak\u0131yoruz. \u00c7okuluslu \u015firketler kaynakl\u0131 oynak bile\u015fenleri d\u0131\u015flayan bu g\u00f6sterge, yerel ekonominin GSYH\u2019nin ima etti\u011finden \u00e7ok daha istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor. T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z veri noktas\u0131 da bu.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede bu man\u015fet verinin euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel; nitekim erken i\u015flemlerde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,0750\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bunun a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir tepki oldu\u011funu ve bir ay vadeli euro al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) i\u00e7in potansiyel bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130rlanda hisse piyasas\u0131 ISEQ 20 endeksi de yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 geride; ancak detaylar do\u011fru \u015fekilde sindirildik\u00e7e toparlanma bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, euro ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatiliteyi belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131r\u0131yor. Pani\u011fin yersiz oldu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in, kur \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) satarak bu s\u0131\u00e7ramadan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlayabilece\u011finden, daha geni\u015f Avrupa hisse senedi pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in de uygun bir zaman.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) bu rakam\u0131 g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olarak g\u00f6recek. Piyasa, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran daha d\u00fcn %50 idi. ECB\u2019den gelecek yorumlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; gev\u015femeye dair herhangi bir sinyal, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc daha da destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: \u0130rlanda GSYH ilk \u00e7eyrekte %12,1 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, beklenti -%2\u2019ydi. Ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00e7okuluslu \u00e7arp\u0131tmas\u0131; MDD yaln\u0131z %0,9. Euro bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, volatilite artt\u0131; opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 ve ECB g\u00fcvercinli\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49421"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49421\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}