EUR\/USD, Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7i s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu ancak devam eden al\u0131m ilgisi \u00e7ekmeyi ba\u015faramad\u0131 ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Parite 1,1600\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,10\u2019un biraz \u00fczerinde art\u0131da kald\u0131; gece saatlerinde 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye y\u00fckselen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) sonras\u0131nda yumu\u015famas\u0131 pariteyi destekledi. \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkes, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebini azaltarak Dolar\u2019da k\u00e2r realizasyonunu te\u015fvik etti.<\/p>\n
Euro, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinden destek buldu. Bununla birlikte, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve diplomatik temaslarda ilerleme sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 jeopolitik risk primini y\u00fcksek tuttu. Bu zemin, \u015fahin Fed beklentileriyle birle\u015fince Dolar\u2019daki olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve EUR\/USD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tutarak y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; bu da USD\u2019de agresif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 cayd\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00fcndemde ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve FOMC \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yer alsa da, k\u0131sa vadede en kritik veri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin bug\u00fcn 1,1050 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve anlaml\u0131 bir ivme yakalayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana belirleyici unsur, merkez bankas\u0131 beklentilerindeki ayr\u0131\u015fma olmaya devam ediyor. Piyasa Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, ECB y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce olas\u0131 bir indirime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen jeopolitik gerilimler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na taban olu\u015fturarak EUR\/USD\u2019de belirgin bir yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda sevkiyat kesintilerine ili\u015fkin son haberler Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131 ve Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini destekledi. Bu tablo, jeopolitik alevlenmelerin tarihsel olarak \u201ckaliteye ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d\u0131 tetikledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerdeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu, inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyonla da peki\u015fiyor; May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD T\u00dcFE verisi %3,1 ile beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu nedenle piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc, ekonominin g\u00fcc\u00fcne dair yeni sinyaller i\u00e7in yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda olacak. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, 2026\u2019da Fed faiz indirimi ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde masadan kald\u0131rabilir ve Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomik yorgunluk sinyalleri veriyor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n son sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi ge\u00e7en ay s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde %0,5 daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ECB yetkililerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in politika gev\u015fetmeye daha yatk\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Fed ile yumu\u015fayan bir ECB aras\u0131ndaki bu artan politika fark\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n ana temas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1100 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, paritede kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) satmak veya ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019i (bear call spread) olu\u015fturmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden faydalanmak ad\u0131na temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, bant hareketinden getiri elde etmeyi hedeflerken kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde riski tan\u0131mlamaya da imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Bu paterni daha \u00f6nce, \u00f6zellikle Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Dolar rallisi yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Tarihsel \u00f6rnek, ABD ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki politika patikalar\u0131 bu denli keskin ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Dolar\u2019\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla daha iyi performans sergiledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yaz boyunca benzer, ancak daha az belirgin bir dinami\u011fin devreye girmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NFP \u00f6ncesi EUR\/USD bantta: Dolar, jeopolitik risk ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla taban buluyor. Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, zay\u0131f Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri ECB gev\u015feme beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49418\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}