Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde perakende sat\u0131\u015flar nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 gerileyerek piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi %0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veriler, d\u00f6viz birli\u011finin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen diren\u00e7li seyre ra\u011fmen, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131nda hafif bir zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentilere g\u00f6re gelen olumsuz s\u00fcrpriz, daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n etkisi ekonomiye yans\u0131maya devam ederken, hanelerin iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalarda daha temkinli davranmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden fazla gerilemesi; genel dezenflasyon e\u011filimi s\u00fcrse de, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde i\u00e7 talebin b\u00f6lgesel olarak dalgal\u0131 seyretti\u011fine dair kan\u0131tlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Nisana ait beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, Euro B\u00f6lgesi t\u00fcketicisinin i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, yaz aylar\u0131na girerken ekonomik momentumun yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in Avrupa b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik temkinli duru\u015fumuzu peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (ECB) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvercin bir \u00e7izgiye itebilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun may\u0131sta %2,3\u2019e gerileyerek tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, faizleri sabit tutma hatta ileride faiz indirimine kap\u0131 aralama gerek\u00e7esi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ertelenmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryomuz, euronun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. ABD verilerinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesiyle birlikte, EUR\/USD paritesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,06 seviyesini yeniden test edebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu do\u011frultuda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek \u00fczere euro \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama, geni\u015f Avrupa hisse endeksleri i\u00e7in bir bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcketici ve sanayi talebine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Alman DAX ve Frans\u0131z CAC 40 bu geli\u015fmeye daha a\u00e7\u0131k. Olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in endeks vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f ya da bu endekslerde put spread stratejilerinin uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle harcama geri \u00e7ekilmesine en duyarl\u0131 alan olan iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc hedefliyoruz. Avrupal\u0131 l\u00fcks markalar ve otomotiv \u015firketlerinde bu y\u0131l de\u011ferlemeler y\u00fckseldi; bu da onlar\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019lerinde veya sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7indeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli tekil hisselerde put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulunan piyasa volatilitesini art\u0131rabilir. Euro STOXX 50 i\u00e7in volatiliteyi \u00f6l\u00e7en VSTOXX endeksi \u015fu anda 15 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye tarihsel olarak piyasa d\u00fczeltmelerinin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Portf\u00f6ylerimizi olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bi\u00e7imde korumak i\u00e7in VSTOXX call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n uygun bir korunma arac\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro B\u00f6lgesi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nisanda %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Bu, ECB\u2019yi daha g\u00fcvercine \u00e7ekebilir; EUR\/USD 1,06 test edebilir. DAX\/CAC, l\u00fcks-otomotiv bask\u0131da; putlar ve VSTOXX call\u2019lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}