GBP\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 1,3430 civar\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseldi; ancak parite d\u00f6rt seanst\u0131r 1,3407-1,3485 band\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Fiyat hareketi, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme sa\u011flanamamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakere ekibinin L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 protesto etmek amac\u0131yla arabulucular \u00fczerinden mesaj al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fini pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc durdurdu\u011funu bildirdi. Donald Trump ise \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ayetullah\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u201cDini Lider M\u00fccteba Hamaney\u201din s\u00fcrece dahil oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ekonomilere ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, Fed\u2019in politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin sinyal aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD, 1,3456\u2019daki 20 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede bearish e\u011filimini koruyor. Simetrik \u00dc\u00e7gen formasyonu daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte yatay bir trende i\u015faret ederken, RSI 40,00-60,00 band\u0131nda seyrediyor. Diren\u00e7 1,3456 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3478\u2019de; destek 1,3408 civar\u0131nda. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma, 18 May\u0131s dip seviyesi olan 1,3300\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesinin dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 1,2755 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n net bir kataliz\u00f6r beklemesiyle piyasada daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle Washington ile Pekin aras\u0131nda yeniden t\u0131rmanan ticari s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler gibi jeopolitik endi\u015feler, \u015fimdilik piyasay\u0131 kenarda tutuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm dikkatler \u015fimdi yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuna \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Piyasa beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 185 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu veri Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek nitelikte. Bu rakamdan belirgin bir sapma, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sert volatilite yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyonunun h\u00e2len %3,2 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisi Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve muhtemelen dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. A\u011fustos 2023\u2019teki belirgin NFP sapmas\u0131na bakmak bile, s\u00fcrpriz bir verinin piyasada nas\u0131l keskin ve anl\u0131k hareketler do\u011furabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu d\u00f6nem rehavete uygun de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Sterlin taraf\u0131nda ise Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyan enflasyonun\u2014son verilere g\u00f6re %3,5\u2014\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) \u015fahin bir duru\u015fta tuttu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sterlin\u2019deki bu temel destek, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda mevcut kilitlenmenin olu\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor ve \u015fimdilik parite i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik d\u00fczeyinin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, volatilite sat\u0131n alman\u0131n en temkinli strateji oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejileri, istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabildikleri i\u00e7in etkili olabilir. Z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fu an orta seviyelerde; bu da s\u00f6z konusu pozisyonlar\u0131n hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak parite dar bir aral\u0131kta s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; 1,2800 civar\u0131nda kritik diren\u00e7, 1,2700 seviyesinde ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. NFP sonras\u0131 bu kanal\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, bir sonraki ana trendin sinyali olabilir. O zamana kadar yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar yatay bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Dolar zay\u0131flasa da jeopolitik riskler ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler cuma NFP\u2019de; teknik seviyeler 1,3456 diren\u00e7, 1,3408 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49410\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}