GBP\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanarak, haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 1,3400 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ile birlikte yay\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Washington\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkesi uygulama konusunda anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Bu geli\u015fme, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana biriken Dolar\u2019a y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fcksek tutarak paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ve geni\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de ivme kaybeden i\u015f faaliyetlerine i\u015faret eden ABD verilerinin etkisiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda %0,28 geriledi. GBP\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3471 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 1,3426 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. ABD ordusu H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlerken, Tahran ABD\u2019nin K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki m\u00fcttefikleri Kuveyt, BAE ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 hedef ald\u0131; \u0130ran, Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IRGC) ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini ve daha fazla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,3400 seviyesi civar\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu ve iki z\u0131t dinamik aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman ABD dolar\u0131na olan talebi azaltarak sterline bir miktar destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk unsuru olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim, piyasa genelindeki korku g\u00f6stergelerine de net bi\u00e7imde yans\u0131yor; CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) son d\u00f6nemde 19\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden kayda de\u011fer bir y\u00fckseli\u015f. \u00d6te yandan, son d\u00f6nemde 270 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi ABD\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in temel bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller, dalgal\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor bir i\u015flem d\u00f6neminin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oda\u011f\u0131n belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmininden ziyade volatilitenin kendisinde olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin aylar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu da piyasan\u0131n sert fiyat hareketleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde kayda de\u011fer bir harekete oynayan stratejilerin daha uygun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma genellikle g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 2019\u2019daki benzer K\u00f6rfez gerilimleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda dolar endeksi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve GBP\/USD\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmi\u015fti. Bu emsal, mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n sterlin \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sterlinde agresif y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ate\u015fkes haberleri ge\u00e7ici rahatlamalar sa\u011flayabilir; ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7erebilecek daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011fini destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik tablo sakinle\u015fene kadar GBP\/USD\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri potansiyel bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla 1,3400 \u00fcst\u00fcne toparland\u0131; \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltt\u0131. Ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019de ABD-\u0130ran t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 VIX\u2019i y\u00fckseltti, volatiliteyi art\u0131rd\u0131; y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}