USD\/CHF, \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u201cate\u015fin tamamen kesilmesi\u201d \u015fart\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ate\u015fkesi yenileme konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan azalan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma e\u011filimiyle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131 ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7910 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Anla\u015fma, Washington\u2019da ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Resmi diplomatik ili\u015fkileri bulunmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen taraflar ayr\u0131ca, L\u00fcbnan silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin \u201cdevlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rler hari\u00e7 tutularak\u201d m\u00fcnhas\u0131r kontrol sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u201cpilot g\u00fcvenlik b\u00f6lgeleri\u201d kurulmas\u0131nda da uzla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Paritede ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn, May\u0131s ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 ve JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 dahil daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam g\u00f6stergelerinin ard\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi. \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 bozmaya devam etmesiyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve fiyatlamay\u0131 daha \u015fahin bir patikaya itti. CME FedWatch Tool, Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %42 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6te yandan, SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n reel a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesinin nominal a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmeye y\u00f6nelik haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019de mevcut durumu, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ile jeopolitik risk aras\u0131ndaki bir \u00e7eki\u015fme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ate\u015fkes haberleri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flatt\u0131; ancak dolar i\u00e7in altta yatan deste\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu nedenle, paritede 0,7900 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinle kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) duru\u015fu giderek daha net hale geliyor ve buna g\u00f6re i\u015flem yapmak gerekiyor. Son veriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu, ekonominin 272 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini ve beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i k\u0131l\u0131yor ve bu da ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) Frang\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini engellemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu sinyalini verdi. SNB\u2019nin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte piyasalara y\u00f6nelik sert m\u00fcdahaleleri bulunuyor ve son d\u00f6nemdeki ton de\u011fi\u015fimi, enflasyondan ziyade Frang\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden daha fazla endi\u015fe duyduklar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu m\u00fcdahale tehdidi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF paritesi i\u00e7in potansiyel bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; olas\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yeniden alevlenmesi, Frang\u2019da g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek USD\/CHF\u2019yi sert bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu nedenle, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) bir al\u0131m (call) ve bir sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almaya dayal\u0131 uzun strangle stratejisini de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u015fahin Fed ile g\u00fcvercin SNB birle\u015fiminin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisi nedeniyle en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. 0,7910 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler, uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir toparlanmadan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla Temmuz vadeli USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF, \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131nca 0,7910\u2019a geriledi; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 Fed\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini canl\u0131 tutuyor. SNB m\u00fcdahale sinyali taban sa\u011flayabilir; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49403\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}