ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00fc\u00e7 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f seans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sakin seyretti ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) gerilemesi \u00fczerine 99,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan, ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Washington\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ate\u015fkesi yenileme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131; \u015fartlar, \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fi \u201ctamamen durdurmas\u0131n\u0131\u201d gerektiriyor. Taraflar, resmi diplomatik ili\u015fkileri olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, L\u00fcbnan silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri d\u0131\u015flayacak \u015fekilde belirli b\u00f6lgelerde m\u00fcnhas\u0131r kontrol sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u201cpilot g\u00fcvenlik b\u00f6lgeleri\u201d kurulmas\u0131nda da uzla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal\u2019\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD askerlerini \u00f6ld\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019la ate\u015fkesi sona erdirmeyi de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131na s\u00f6yledi; \u00f6te yandan devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda bir haftal\u0131k ara y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. New York Post\u2019a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda Trump, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131\u2019na (Labor Day) kadar s\u00fcrecek bir ablukay\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini ancak ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 da saymad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, piyasalar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklenen takvimini uzatt\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, dolar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc; May\u0131s ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 ve JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 dahil daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileriyle destek bulurken, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %42 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 4 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,50 civar\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak bu istikrar ge\u00e7ici bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm veriyor. \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131ndaki son ate\u015fkes haberi bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flasa da \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck risk, dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Piyasa tedirginli\u011fini koruyor; bu da dolardaki olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri potansiyel al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in en kritik unsur, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki durum. WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n arz kesintisi endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndemin merkezine oturdu. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131\u2019na kadar olas\u0131 bir abluka uzat\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun yaz boyunca kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Federal Rezerv\u2019e (Fed) ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmemizi do\u011frudan etkiliyor. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3,8 gelmesi ve JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131 gibi son veriler, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in net bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu art\u0131k kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k konumunda; 200 binin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015fla bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kazan\u0131m beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu unsurlar, faiz beklentilerinde belirgin bir kaymaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131; CME FedWatch Tool art\u0131k Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %42 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran, bir ay \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %15 seviyesindeydi; h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlama s\u00fcreci, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Jeopolitik gerilimler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011fu s\u00fcrece bu e\u011filimin devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k beklentisiyle pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Olas\u0131 kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k vadeli DXY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almay\u0131 g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli ABD dolar\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak da, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade ederken prim geliri toplamak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY 99,50\u2019de yatay: \u0130srail\u2011L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa da \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi petrol\u00fc 95 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam\/T\u00dcFE Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor; Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49401\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}