Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ayl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi Nisan\u2019da yeniden fazla verdi; bir \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n revize edilen 1.841 milyon Avustralya dolar\u0131 (A$) a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 1.791 milyon A$ fazlaya y\u00fckseldi. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, ayl\u0131k bazda 3.632 milyon A$\u2019l\u0131k iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ederek Mart\u2019taki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi ve d\u0131\u015f pozisyonu yeniden art\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6nceki daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla ay genelinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir net ticaret sonucuna i\u015faret ediyor. Nisan sonucu, \u00f6nceki a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa k\u0131yasla belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k sergilerken, mal ve hizmetler dengesinde ayl\u0131k bazda (MoM) toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan 1,79 milyar A$\u2019l\u0131k fazlaya ya\u015fanan belirgin s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n, Avustralya ekonomisi i\u00e7in net bir \u201cbo\u011fa\u201d sinyali oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. \u0130hracattaki toparlanman\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, temelde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde AUD\/USD paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket bekleyerek pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ihracat toparlanmas\u0131, birincil ticaret orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olmaya devam eden \u00c7in\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taleple do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Caixin \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde 51,7 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131, sanayi i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n korundu\u011funu teyit ediyor. Bu durum, demir cevheri gibi kilit emtialarda fiyatlar\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde destekli kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor ve do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengemize yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu makro veri, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesini olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal haline getiriyor. Son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergesinin enflasyonun %3,6 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesiyle birlikte, RBA\u2019n\u0131n mevcut \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu faiz avantaj\u0131, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankalar\u0131 g\u00fcvercin olan para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun AUD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, cari spot seviyenin hemen \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki pozitif s\u00fcrprizler kal\u0131c\u0131 momentum yaratabiliyor; opsiyonlar ise tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir riskle bu potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n veriyor. Ayr\u0131ca ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Avustralya Nisan\u2019da 1,79 milyar A$ ticaret fazlas\u0131na ge\u00e7ti. \u00c7in talebi ve emtia deste\u011fiyle AUD g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. \u015eahin RBA indirimi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; AUD\/USD\u2019de call ve bo\u011fa spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49399\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}