EUR\/USD, 1,1600 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda dengelendi ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 al\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015farak, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn haftal\u0131k dip seviyeye do\u011fru kaydetti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesindeki \u043f\u043e\u0437\u0438isyonlanma nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Washington\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan var\u0131lan L\u00fcbnan-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi, b\u00f6lgede k\u0131sa vadeli t\u0131rmanma riskini azaltarak g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (USD) olan talebi t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi ve pariteye bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri de euroyu destekledi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte jeopolitik riskler s\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD ordusu, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u0130ran f\u00fczesi ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 p\u00fcsk\u00fcrtt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa kapsam\u0131nda sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran da buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef ald\u0131. Gerilim, ham petrol\u00fcn son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcndeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, enflasyon endi\u015felerini canl\u0131 tuttu ve Fed dahil b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131nda \u015fahin e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch Tool verileri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50 civar\u0131nda fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu arka plan, daha net bir politika y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri beklenirken USD\u2019yi destekli tutabilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0850 civar\u0131nda tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan al\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu veri, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olacak ve piyasada temkinli duru\u015fa neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Euro, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne yaz sonuna do\u011fru ara verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden son de\u011ferlendirmelerle destek buluyor. Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden canlanan diplomatik \u00e7abalar, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma endi\u015felerini bir miktar hafifletti. Bu durum, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131smen azaltarak parite i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir taban olu\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu iyimserli\u011fin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 gerilim nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da jeopolitik riski g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131nda tutuyor. S\u00f6z konusu riskler, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutuyor. Bu da inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 besleyerek Fed\u2019i daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 bir \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d d\u00f6nemini fiyatl\u0131yor. En g\u00fcncel CME FedWatch Tool verilerine g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed\u2019den faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu, yaln\u0131zca \u00fc\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan %70 olas\u0131l\u0131kla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, jeopolitik huzursuzlukla birle\u015fti\u011finde dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir ve EUR\/USD\u2019de agresif y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara uzun pozisyon maruziyetini azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve yatay bantta fiyat hareketinden ya da olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten fayda sa\u011flayabilecek opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. 195 binlik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde gelecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir NFP verisi, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirebilir ve paritede bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1600 alt\u0131nda dengelendi: L\u00fcbnan-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi dolar\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fclese de \u0130ran gerilimi ve 85$+ petrol Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor. G\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49395\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}